Recalibration of Limits to Growth: An Update of the World3 Model
- After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial land development time.
Download full text files
Additional Services
Statistics
| Author: | Arjuna NebelORCiD, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hbz:832-epub4-26657 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442 |
| ISSN: | 1088-1980 |
| ISSN: | 1530-9290 |
| Parent Title (English): | Journal of Industrial Ecology |
| Document Type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first Publication: | 2024/02/13 |
| Date of Publication (online): | 2024/07/11 |
| Tag: | Crisis; Industrial Ecology; Limits to Growth; Overshoot and Collapse; System Dynamics; World3 |
| Volume: | 28 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Page Number: | 13 |
| Institutes: | Anlagen, Energie- und Maschinensysteme (F09) / Fakultät 09 / Cologne Institute for Renewable Energy |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften |
| Open Access: | Open Access |
| DeepGreen: | DeepGreen |
| Licence (German): |  Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |