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Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union

  • This paper studies the process of business cycle synchronization in the European Union and the euro area. As our baseline methodology we adopt rolling window correlation coefficients of various economic indicators, observed since 2000. Among the indicators, we distinguish between real economic indicators, like the real GDP growth and unemployment, and nominal indicators, like inflation and government budget. Given the direct implication of this kind of analysis for the common monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), special attention is paid to the pattern of business cycle synchronization in the core and peripheral members of the euro area. Our analysis of quarterly data covering the first two decades of the euro area shows that there was a certain synchronization tendency in the first years of the common currency. However, the European debt crisis halted the economic integration within the European Union and—even more so—within the euro area. Since the ECB can to a large extent intervene only with “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy instruments, this renders increasingly cumbersome the conduct of stabilisation policies within the euro area.

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Metadaten
Author:Agnieszka Gehringer, Jörg König
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:832-epub4-18154
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14080362
ISSN:1911-8074
Parent Title (English):Journal of Risk and Financial Management
Publisher:MDPI
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2021/08/06
Date of Publication (online):2021/11/11
GND-Keyword:Euro; Wirtschaftliche Integration
Tag:Business Cycle Synchronization; Disintegration; Economic Integration; Euro; European Union
Volume:14
Issue:8
Article Number:362
Page Number:23
Institutes:Wirtschafts- und Rechtswissenschaften (F04) / Fakultät 04 / Schmalenbach Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Dewey Decimal Classification:300 Sozialwissenschaften
Open Access:Open Access
DeepGreen:DeepGreen
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International