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To realize a reliable and cost-effective application of high-temperature superconductive (HTS) equipment at high-voltage (HV) levels, the influence of thermally induced gas bubbles on the dielectric strength of different solid insulating materials in liquid nitrogen (LN2) was investigated. A heatable copper tape electrode arrangement was developed simulating HTS tapes with insulation in between. AC breakdown measurements were performed without and with forced boiling on insulating papers, polypropylene laminated paper (PPLP) and polyimide (PI) films. Under nucleate boiling the influence of bubbles on the dielectric strength of all materials was not significant. However under film boiling the dielectric strength of the insulating papers decreased to a level comparable to their dielectric strength in air, demonstrating the insufficient impregnation of porous materials under film boiling. For PI there was no degradation at all. PPLP retained about 70% of its basic dielectric strength in LN2.
AbstractThis paper discusses the comparison of two methods to achieve thermal comfort utilising air conditioning (AC) system in a small indoor space – adaptive control and fuzzy control. Thermal comfort indoors is performed to provide comfortability individually or for a group of people. Due to the small indoor space which usually a bit cramped, crowded and less airy, the ambience can be very uncomfortable either for doing sedentary or active work, thus the AC system can be very useful to provide thermal comfort. Both methods can be utilised depending on how thermal comfort is viewed and how the level of thermal comfort is decided. Every method has its own advantage and limitations, and will be covered in this paper as well.
Climate change includes the change of the long-term average values and the change of the tails of probability density functions, where the extreme events are located. However, obtaining average values are more straightforward than the high temporal resolution information necessary to catch the extreme events on those tails. Such information is difficult to get in areas lacking sufficient rain stations. Thanks to the development of Satellite Precipitation Estimates with a daily resolution, this problem has been overcome, so Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPI) can be calculated for the entire Colombian territory. However, Colombia is strongly affected by the ENSO (El Niño—Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. Therefore, it is pertinent to ask if the EPI’s long-term change due to climate change is more critical than the anomalies due to climate variability induced by the warm and cold phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña, respectively). In this work, we built EPI annual time series at each grid-point of the selected Satellite Precipitation Estimate (CHIRPSv2) over Colombia to answer the previous question. Then, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to compare the samples drawn in each case (i.e., change tests due to both long-term and climatic variability). After performing the analyses, we realized that the importance of the change depends on the region analyzed and the considered EPI. However, some general conclusions became evident: during El Niño years (La Niña), EPI’s anomaly follows the general trend of reduction -drier conditions- (increase; -wetter conditions-) observed in Colombian annual precipitation amount, but only on the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region. In the Eastern plains of Colombia (Orinoquía and Amazonian region), EPI show a certain insensitivity to change due to climatic variability. On the other hand, EPI’s long-term changes in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region are spatially scattered. Still, long-term changes in the eastern plains have a moderate spatial consistency with statistical significance.
Abstract
Two types (with and without a hydrolysis stabilizer) of polyamide 6.6 (PA6.6) reinforced with 30% w/w glass fibres were examined against the influence of automotive cooling fluids, e.g. ethylene glycol aqueous solutions. The overall goal was to find a methodology to compare the performance of PA6.6 materials against the impacts of the hydrolysis environment. The stabilizer effect on the hydrolytic resistance of the materials was assessed using tensile tests according to ISO 527, and their strain‐at‐break values were evaluated in more detail. The degradation mechanism of both PA types was monitored by infrared spectroscopy and SEM. The material lifetime was described by the Arrhenius equation. The results show that the hydrolysis stabilizer operates effectively at low temperature but exhibits weak performance above 130 °C, which is explained by faster consumption of the stabilizing agent. © 2021 The Authors. Polymer International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Industrial Chemistry.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, university students worldwide have experienced drastic changes in their academic and social lives, with the rapid shift to online courses and contact restrictions being reported among the major stressors. In the present study, we aimed at examining students’ perceived stress over the course of the pandemic as well as individual psychological and social coping resources within the theoretical framework of the Transactional Model of Stress and Coping in the specific group of STEM students. In four cross-sectional studies with a total of 496 computer science students in Germany, we found that students reported significantly higher levels of perceived stress at both measurement time points in the second pandemic semester (October/November 2020; January/February 2021) as compared to the beginning of the first (April/May 2020), indicating that students rather became sensitized to the constant pandemic-related stress exposure than habituating to the “new normal”. Regarding students’ coping resources in the higher education context, we found that both high (a) academic self-efficacy and (b) academic online self-efficacy as well as low (c) perceived social and academic exclusion among fellow students significantly predicted lower levels of students’ (d) belonging uncertainty to their study program, which, in turn, predicted lower perceived stress at the beginning of the first pandemic semester. At the beginning of the second pandemic semester, we found that belonging uncertainty still significantly mediated the relationship between students’ academic self-efficacy and perceived stress. Students’ academic online self-efficacy, however, no longer predicted their uncertainty about belonging, but instead had a direct buffering effect on their perceived stress. Students’ perceived social and academic exclusion among fellow students only marginally predicted their belonging uncertainty and no longer predicted their perceived stress 6 months into the pandemic. We discuss the need and importance of assessing and monitoring students’ stress levels as well as faculty interventions to strengthen students’ individual psychological and social coping resources in light of the still ongoing pandemic.
AbstractThe Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) delta is one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world due to a combination of high population density and exposure to tropical cyclones, floods, salinity intrusion and other hazards. Due to the complexity of natural deltaic processes and human influence on these processes, structural solutions like embankments are inadequate on their own for effective hazard mitigation. This article examines nature-based solutions (NbSs) as a complementary or alternative approach to managing hazards in the GB delta. We investigate the potential of NbS as a complementary and sustainable method for mitigating the impacts of coastal disaster risks, mainly cyclones and flooding. Using the emerging framework of NbS principles, we evaluate three existing approaches: tidal river management, mangrove afforestation, and oyster reef cultivation, all of which are actively being used to help reduce the impacts of coastal hazards. We also identify major challenges (socioeconomic, biophysical, governance and policy) that need to be overcome to allow broader application of the existing approaches by incorporating the NbS principles. In addition to addressing GB delta-specific challenges, our findings provide more widely applicable insights into the challenges of implementing NbS in deltaic environments globally.
In this paper we describe traffic sign recognition with neural networks in the frequency domain. Traffic signs exist in all countries to regulate the traffic of vehicles and pedestrians. Each country has its own set of traffic signs that are more or less similar. They consist of a set of abstract forms, symbols, numbers and letters, which are combined into different signs. Automatic traffic sign recognition is important for driver assistance systems and for autonomous driving. Traffic sign recognition is a subtype of image recognition. The traffic signs are usually recorded by a camera and must be recognized in real time, i.e. assigned to a class. We use neural networks for traffic sign recognition. The special feature of our method is that the traffic sign recognition does not take place in the spatial domain but in the frequency domain. This has advantages because it is possible to significantly reduce the number of neurons and thus the computing effort of the neural network compared to a conventional neural network.
The development and adoption of digital twins (DT) for Quality-by-Design (QbD)-based processes with flexible operating points within a proven acceptable range (PAR) and automation through Advanced Process Control (APC) with Process Analytical Technology (PAT) instead of conventional process execution based on offline analytics and inflexible process set points is one of the great challenges in modern biotechnology. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are part of a line of innovative drug substances (DS). VLPs, especially those based on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), HIV-1 Gag VLPs, have very high potential as a versatile vaccination platform, allowing for pseudotyping with heterologous envelope proteins, e.g., the S protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As enveloped VLPs, optimal process control with minimal hold times is essential. This study demonstrates, for the first time, the use of a digital twin for the overall production process of HIV-1 Gag VLPs from cultivation, clarification, and purification to lyophilization. The accuracy of the digital twins is in the range of 0.8 to 1.4% in depth filtration (DF) and 4.6 to 5.2% in ultrafiltration/diafiltration (UFDF). The uncertainty due to variability in the model parameter determination is less than 4.5% (DF) and less than 3.8% (UFDF). In the DF, a prediction of the final filter capacity was demonstrated from as low as 5.8% (9mbar) of the final transmembrane pressure (TMP). The scale-up based on DT in chromatography shows optimization potential in productivity up to a factor of 2. The schedule based on DT and PAT for APC has been compared to conventional process control, and hold-time and process duration reductions by a factor of 2 have been achieved. This work lays the foundation for the short-term validation of the DT and PAT for APC in an automated S7 process environment and the conversion from batch to continuous production.
Different mechanisms mediate the toxicity of RNA. Genomic retroviral mRNA hijacks infected host cell factors to enable virus replication. The viral genomic RNA of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) encompasses nine genes encoding in less than 10 kb all proteins needed for replication in susceptible host cells. To do so, the genomic RNA undergoes complex alternative splicing to facilitate the synthesis of the structural, accessory, and regulatory proteins. However, HIV strongly relies on the host cell machinery recruiting cellular factors to complete its replication cycle. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) targets different steps in the cycle, preventing disease progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The comprehension of the host immune system interaction with the virus has fostered the development of a variety of vaccine platforms. Despite encouraging provisional results in vaccine trials, no effective vaccine has been developed, yet. However, novel promising vaccine platforms are currently under investigation.
Despite great efforts to develop a vaccine against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes AIDS if untreated, no approved HIV vaccine is available to date. A promising class of vaccines are virus-like particles (VLPs), which were shown to be very effective for the prevention of other diseases. In this study, production of HI-VLPs using different 293F cell lines, followed by a three-step purification of HI-VLPs, was conducted. The quality-by-design-based process development was supported by process analytical technology (PAT). The HI-VLP concentration increased 12.5-fold while >80% purity was achieved. This article reports on the first general process development and optimization up to purification. Further research will focus on process development for polishing and formulation up to lyophilization. In addition, process analytical technology and process modeling for process automation and optimization by digital twins in the context of quality-by-design framework will be developed.
Resilience in the urban context can be described as a continuum of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. The need to move toward a sustainable future and bounce forward after any disruption has led recent urban resilience initiatives to engage with the concept of transformative resilience when and where conventional and top-down resilience initiatives are less likely to deliver effective strategies, plans, and implementable actions. Transformative resilience pathways emphasize the importance of reflexive governance, inclusive co-creation of knowledge, innovative and collaborative learning, and self-organizing processes. To support these transformative pathways, considering techno-social co-evolution and digital transformation, using new data sources such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and crowdsourcing are being promoted. However, a literature review on VGI and transformative resilience reveals that a comprehensive understanding of the complexities and capacities of utilizing VGI for transformative resilience is lacking. Therefore, based on a qualitative content analysis of available resources, this paper explores the key aspects of using VGI for transformative resilience and proposes a comprehensive framework structured around the identified legal, institutional, social, economic, and technical aspects to formalize the process of adopting VGI in transformative resilience initiatives.
This paper documents the design, implementation and evaluation of the Unfolding Space Glove—an open source sensory substitution device. It transmits the relative position and distance of nearby objects as vibratory stimuli to the back of the hand and thus enables blind people to haptically explore the depth of their surrounding space, assisting with navigation tasks such as object recognition and wayfinding. The prototype requires no external hardware, is highly portable, operates in all lighting conditions, and provides continuous and immediate feedback—all while being visually unobtrusive. Both blind (n = 8) and blindfolded sighted participants (n = 6) completed structured training and obstacle courses with both the prototype and a white long cane to allow performance comparisons to be drawn between them. The subjects quickly learned how to use the glove and successfully completed all of the trials, though still being slower with it than with the cane. Qualitative interviews revealed a high level of usability and user experience. Overall, the results indicate the general processability of spatial information through sensory substitution using haptic, vibrotactile interfaces. Further research would be required to evaluate the prototype’s capabilities after extensive training and to derive a fully functional navigation aid from its features.
In this work, supported cellulose acetate (CA) mixed matrix membranes (MMMs) were prepared and studied concerning their gas separation behaviors. The dispersion of carbon nanotube fillers were studied as a factor of polymer and filler concentrations using the mixing methods of the rotor–stator system (RS) and the three-roll-mill system (TRM). Compared to the dispersion quality achieved by RS, samples prepared using the TRM seem to have slightly bigger, but fewer and more homogenously distributed, agglomerates. The green γ-butyrolactone (GBL) was chosen as a polyimide (PI) polymer-solvent, whereas diacetone alcohol (DAA) was used for preparing the CA solutions. The coating of the thin CA separation layer was applied using a spin coater. For coating on the PP carriers, a short parameter study was conducted regarding the plasma treatment to affect the wettability, the coating speed, and the volume of dispersion that was applied to the carrier. As predicted by the parameter study, the amount of dispersion that remained on the carriers decreased with an increasing rotational speed during the spin coating process. The dry separation layer thickness was varied between about 1.4 and 4.7 μm. Electrically conductive additives in a non-conductive matrix showed a steeply increasing electrical conductivity after passing the so-called percolation threshold. This was used to evaluate the agglomeration behavior in suspension and in the applied layer. Gas permeation tests were performed using a constant volume apparatus at feed pressures of 5, 10, and 15 bar. The highest calculated CO2/N2 selectivity (ideal), 21, was achieved for the CA membrane and corresponded to a CO2 permeability of 49.6 Barrer.
The oxidation of cumene and following cleavage of cumene hydroperoxide (CHP) with sulfuric acid (Hock rearrangement) is still, by far, the dominant synthetic route to produce phenol. In 2020, the global phenol market reached a value of 23.3 billion US$ with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3.4% for 2020–2025. From ecological and economical viewpoints, the key step of this process is the cleavage of CHP. One sought-after way to likewise reduce energy consumption and waste production of the process is to substitute sulfuric acid with heterogeneous catalysts. Different types of zeolites, silicon-based clays, heteropoly acids, and ion exchange resins have been investigated and tested in various studies. For every type of these solid acid catalysts, several materials were found that show high yield and selectivity to phenol. In this mini-review, first a brief introduction and overview on the Hock process is given. Next, the mechanism, kinetics, and safety aspects are summarized and discussed. Following, the different types of heterogeneous catalysts and their performance as catalyst in the Hock process are illustrated. Finally, the different approaches to substitute sulfuric acid in the synthetic route to produce phenol are briefly concluded and a short outlook is given.
Pressure injuries remain a serious health complication for patients and nursing staff. Evidence from the past decade has not been analysed through narrative synthesis yet. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL Complete, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and other reviews/sources were screened. Risk of bias was evaluated using a slightly modified QUIPS tool. Risk factor domains were used to assign (non)statistically independent risk factors. Hence, 67 studies with 679,660 patients were included. In low to moderate risk of bias studies, non-blanchable erythema reliably predicted pressure injury stage 2. Factors influencing mechanical boundary conditions, e.g., higher interface pressure or BMI < 18.5, as well as factors affecting interindividual susceptibility (male sex, older age, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, diabetes, hypotension, low physical activity, existing pressure injuries) and treatment-related aspects, such as length of stay in intensive care units, were identified as possible risk factors for pressure injury development. Health care professionals’ evidence-based knowledge of above-mentioned risk factors is vital to ensure optimal prevention and/or treatment. Openly accessible risk factors, e.g., sex, age, BMI, pre-existing diabetes, and non-blanchable erythema, can serve as yellow flags for pressure injury development. Close communication concerning further risk factors, e.g., anemia, hypoalbuminemia, or low physical activity, may optimize prevention and/or treatment. Further high-quality evidence is warranted.
The challenges facing the reinsurance industry remain considerable. For the reinsurance sector, 2021 was marked by claims for natural disasters (Hurricane Ida, flooding in Europe, etc.) and the coronavirus pandemic.
The Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance analyses the latest developments in the reinsurance market and, where appropriate, monitors these through research projects. In the process, the Research Centre for Reinsurance links its research activities with practices in the reinsurance sector. Hereby, and facilitated through organisation of the annual Cologne Reinsurance Symposium and the Annual Meeting of the Sponsoring Group Reinsurance [Förderkreis Rückversicherung], a bi-directional transfer of knowledge between theory and practice is pursued.
The content of these two scientific events, as well as the completed research projects, are incorporated into scholarship and instruction at the Institute of Insurance Studies, rounding out practice-oriented training in the field of reinsurance.
There are ten researchers and four professors currently on the staff of the Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance. Thereby, all material and personnel costs are fully financed by third-party funds provided by the Sponsoring Group Reinsurance. This funding helped facilitate the doctorate of Mr Frank Cremer, among other things.
At the 14th Annual Meeting of the Sponsoring Group Reinsurance held in 2021, a decision was taken to provide financial support to the non-profit organisation ‘Hilfe für Guinea e.V.’ The donation will benefit the La Lumière Scolaire project. This project finances the construction and operation of schools for the children of disabled and homeless people in Guinea.
The Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance is accredited as an official research focus of the Cologne University of Applied Sciences.
Configuration of energy transition factors in Inner Mongolia: A qualitative fuzzy logic approach
(2022)
Transitioning towards a low-carbon society is now increasingly becoming a global concern. The goal of successfully achieving this energy transition has become one of most pressing challenge, both among government decision makers and academia. Energy transition has raised up and become one of the top action priorities in China. Inner Mongolia, as the study area in this research, is significant in China's energy transition as one of leading provinces in terms of energy resources and electricity outward transmission.
The main goal of this dissertation is to identify configurations that influence on the energy transition in IMAR. On the basis of a multilevel perspective (MLP) framework, the method of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is applied within the thesis, taking 8 Chinese municipalities or leagues as study cases. A qualitative comparative study is carried out of configurations of diversified factors, which affect China’s energy transition. Eight antecedent conditions extracted from landscape level, regime level and niche level respectively.
It is shown that different transition trajectories can have a similar energy transition outcome. Energy transition itself is induced by multiple factors collaboratively. Coal resource curse does not always have negative effects on energy transition in Inner Mongolia. Within this work, two main energy transition modes (supply and demand balance reversed mode in western IMAR and energy technological transformation mode in eastern IMAR) are constructed based on regional differences and yearly dynamics, illustrating the trajectories with different municipal characteristics. The transition pattern also shows different geographical characteristics. Different east-west distribution of the electricity market distributes differently in eastern and western Inner Mongolia, however, the difference in distinct forms of electricity market does not show enough impact on the energy transition trajectory in this dissertation. Overall, this study shows that the local response and its effects on the process of energy transition, in the light of the encouragement and advocacy by the central government. Meanwhile, this study offers a deeper understanding in the feasibility of the application with a methodological combination of MLP and fsQCA in provincial level for future research.
For most classes of chains, it is known if these contain locks, but especially for fixed-angle equilateral equiangular obtuse open polygonal chains in 3D, which can be used to model protein backbones, this is unknown. Fixed-angle equilateral equiangular obtuse closed and open polygonal chains can be used to model polymers. For these, it is clear, that locks based on knots exist, but not which chains are generally locked. We therefore examine both open and closed fixed-angle equilateral equiangular obtuse chains. For this purpose, those chains are divided into various subgroups and, depending on the subgroup, other aspects are investigated to show locks. Techniques from knot theory, graph theory, and specifically robot arm reachability and motion planning are combined. Algorithms are developed to create chains in desired configurations and to study them. It is shown why all fixed-angle equilateral equiangular obtuse closed chains are expected to be locked or in rare cases rigid and non-locked, but never non-locked and non-rigid. For fixed-angle equilateral equiangular obtuse open chains it is shown why it is expected that there are open chains that are locked and that the smallest locked open chain has 𝑛=7.
Abstract
Due to their pronounced bioactivity and limited availability from natural resources, metabolites of the soft coral Pseudopterogorgia elisabethae, such as erogorgiaene and the pseudopterosines, represent important target molecules for chemical synthesis. We have now developed a particularly short and efficient route towards these marine diterpenes exploiting an operationally convenient enantioselective cobalt‐catalyzed hydrovinylation as the chirogenic step. Other noteworthy C−C bond forming transformations include diastereoselective Lewis acid‐mediated cyclizations, a Suzuki coupling and a carbonyl ene reaction. Starting from 4‐methyl‐styrene the anti‐tubercular agent (+)‐erogorgiaene (>98 % ee) was prepared in only 7 steps with 46 % overall yield. In addition, the synthesis of the pseudopterosin A aglycone was achieved in 12 steps with 30 % overall yield and, surprisingly, was found to exhibit a similar anti‐inflammatory activity (inhibition of LPS‐induced NF‐κB activation) as a natural mixture of pseudopterosins A−D or iso‐pseudopterosin A, prepared by β‐D‐xylosylation of the synthetic aglycone.
Abstract
In the chemical industry large amounts of saline wastewater occur. Its disposal into rivers is a considerable burden to the ecosystem. To strive for a circular economy and enable a viable raw material recycling, energy‐efficient concentration processes are requisite. High‐pressure reverse osmosis meets this criterion, but its industrial application demands suitable membrane elements that withstand the exceptional operation conditions and provide sufficient performance. Hence, new requirements regarding the design of spiral‐wound elements arise. To identify those, specific performance‐limiting effects need a better understanding.
Different methods have been proposed for in situ root-length density (RLD) measurement. One widely employed is the time-consuming sampling of soil cores or monoliths (MO). The profile wall (PW) method is a less precise, but faster and less laborious alternative. However, depth-differentiated functions to convert PW RLD estimates to MO RLD measurements have not yet been reported. In this study, we perform a regression analysis to relate PW results to MO results and determine whether calibration is possible for distinct crop groups (grasses, brassicas and legumes) consisting of pure and mixed stands, and whether soil depth affects this calibration. The methods were applied over two years to all crop groups and their absolute and cumulative RLD were compared using a linear (LR) and multiple linear (MLR) regression. PW RLD was found to highly underestimate MO RLD in absolute values and in highly rooted areas. However, a close agreement between both methods was found for cumulative root-length (RL) when applying MLR, highlighting the influence of soil depth. The level of agreement between methods varied strongly with depth. Therefore, the application of PW as the main RLD estimation method can provide reliable estimates of cumulative root distribution traits of cover crops.
This bachelor thesis addresses the issue of how school resilience can be measured and assessed quantitatively. Schools as social infrastructures have a significant value for society. Yet, on a global scale, they, and therefore the respective community as well, are continuously endangered by a variety of threats such as natural disasters or violence and mental abuse affecting students, parents and school staff. However, these threats differ greatly depending on climatic and geographical conditions as well as on the socio-cultural context of the corresponding community. To strengthen school resilience against potential threats and to ensure education continuity despite the occurrence of these disruptions, a methodology is developed to measure and assess school resilience in conjunction with its specific circumstances. Initially, qualitative and quantitative (composite) indicators are identified and categorised with the help of a Systematic Literature Review and Mayring's Qualitative Content Analysis. These are subsequently developed into a Comprehensive Index for School Resilience (CISR). Building on this, a pre-existing assessment methodology, which uses Likert-Scales arranged in questionnaires to assign quantitative values to the composite indicators, is adapted to operationalise the CISR and by an exemplary application at Europaschule Troisdorf, the methodology is adapted to the socio-cultural conditions in Germany using an expert’s operational and contextual knowledge. The results obtained show that the methodologies and techniques described in current international research can, after an appropriate adaptation, successfully be applied to schools in Germany as well. Nevertheless, by identifying research limitations and errors as well as potential improvements, it is evident that further research and development is needed to provide stakeholders with a decision-making tool to strengthen the resilience of schools in the future, such as an exhaustive supplement to the CISR or the integration of more precise quantification methodologies and techniques.
The purpose of this article is to analyze the specific success factors of start-ups and to examine their phase dependency. Based on a literature study, 13 start-up-specific success factors from three categories (founders, situational occurrence, strategy) are identified and examined for their influence and phase dependency. For this purpose, 54 employees of successful german start-ups are asked how strongly they assess the influence of the respective success factor and in which phase (pre-foundation, foundation, growth) it has the strongest effect. The results show that the hypotheses derived from the theory are confirmed to a very large extent by the study.
The method of operation of auctions and their use in
a variety of economic sectors is already well documented. Auctions are already in use for the Placement of reinsurance on a small scale. So why is it important to revisit
this field, which has already been studied in such considerable detail?
• Two researchers, Paul R. Milgrom and Robert B. Wilson of Stanford University, were honoured with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2020 for their improvements in auction theory and the invention of new auction formats.
• A trend towards automation is in the Placement of reinsurance is emerging. In this connection, a variety of InsurTechs and market initiatives, such as B3i and
Ritablock, are dealing with various fields of application of blockchain technology.
• The persistent low-interest-rate environment, together with existing competition
and cost pressures from primary insurers, mean that insurers are in search of savings potentials.
• Auctions are proving to be a successful model in many areas of the economy, e.g. in the allocation of frequencies in mobile communication, subsidies for wind farms or energy pricing.
This year’s research topic concerns the allocation mechanism in the reinsurance market and the potential disadvantages it can entail. The project can thus be classified in the discipline of ‘market design’, which builds upon microeconomics and game theory. As the project progresses, first the theoretical framework will be established and placed in the reinsurance context. The second part will offer insight into and an outlook upon current research questions.
The brief lecture addresses reinsurance-relevant aspects of ecosystems in the automotive and mobility field. Specifically, the following aspects will be considered:
• Definition and description of the roles within an ecosystem, paying particular
attention to the role of insurance companies;
• Status and potential drivers of evolving automotive and mobility ecosystems;
• Opportunities for the strategic positioning of reinsurance companies.
The ‘cyber’ threat is regarded as a growth area in the
primary and reinsurance sectors worldwide and for the past five years has been developing more dynamically than any other hazard. This major topic concerns both primary and reinsurance companies in all areas, whether in property, liability, transport or accident insurance. Services (prevention, risk-based pricing models and claims processing, for example) present a global growth market for the reinsurance industry. The complexity of the cyber threat and the evolving nature of the risk involved present a host of challenges for the design of insurance products, for underwriting, for risk management and for cumulative control – for both primary and reinsurance companies. Correct assessment of cyber risk is therefore indispensable, and the right approach must always be developed further. Special attention needs to be given to the variety of forms a cyber event can take. Thus, primary and reinsurance companies can incur not only the costs of data loss, but also the costs of
reconstructing IT infrastructure, the costs of network and business interruptions, costs of crisis management, costs of reputational risk, and the costs of third-party liability claims.
To compensate the shortage of cyber risk data and offer some indication of the status quo on the data available on cyber risks, the researchers prepared a systematic overview to offer cyber risk stakeholders a database of publicly accessible data on cyber risks and cybersecurity. The study focussed on the data sets used in the academic literature.
Assessment of the BaFin Guidance Notice on Dealing with Sustainability Risks in Risk Management
(2021)
The elaboration of research addressed the sustainability risks identified in the BaFin Guidance Notice with regard to risk management. Sustainability risks (ESG risks) must be
divided into the three areas: ‘Environment’, ‘Social’ and ‘Governance’. ‘Environment’, which is potentially the largest area of the three, is divided again into physical risks
and transition risks. Physical risks describe the possible impacts of extreme weather events, and transition risks are those that can arise as a result of the transition to a
low-carbon economy (through political decisions or technological developments, for example). According to the BaFin, the Guidance Notice is a ‘compendium of non-binding procedures’ and the measures to be taken by the companies should be based on the type, magnitude and complexity of the risks involved (principle of proportionality).
This presentation briefly introduces my research project: The Covid-19 impact on the Chinese insurance and reinsurance industry. In the following, I will give you some background information, an overview of the macro implications and some details on the impact on each line of business. Finally, I will end with an outlook for the industry following COVID-19.
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and land use change, has led to changes in the global climate. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to the impacts generated by climate change. For this reason, the challenge facing humanity today is to develop innovative solutions to address the complexity of agricultural sustainability.
On the other hand, sugarcane is one of the crops that emits the most pollutants into the atmosphere, mainly due to the burning of sugarcane before and after harvesting. Most of these atmospheric pollutants are precursors of climate change and have an impact on the health and quality of life of communities. Moreover, this agricultural practice causes the gradual deterioration of the soil, directly affecting sugarcane production. Consequently, several sugarcane-producing countries have established regulations or dispositions to eliminate this agricultural practice, and one option to eliminate it is the mechanization of harvesting. However, its implementation implies social, environmental, and economic impacts that must be analyzed systemically to avoid potential failures during the technological transition process. It is for this reason that this research, through the MICMAC method, focused on identifying the variables associated with the reduction of sugarcane burning in Campos dos Goytacazes and Tamasopo, to subsequently analyze their direct and indirect interrelationship, and, thus, determine the opportunities and limitations of each locality for the reduction of sugarcane burning.
Through this analysis, it became evident that although the technological transition is an imminent step for the sustainability of sugarcane cultivation, certain factors such as legislation, technological innovation, and the perception of the stakeholders regarding the consequences of sugarcane burning, is what defines in the study sites the speed and subsequent success of this process of change towards green harvesting.
Based on the idea of sustainable development, the BioTrade principles and criteria (P&C), based on the idea of sustainable development, have been the essential core guiding the implementation of BioTrade activities since their inception by UNCTAD in 2007. However, after identifying that BioTrade of medicinal plants causes negative impacts on the traditional knowledge related to these plants, the P&C were evaluated in light of the most relevant international agreements that contribute to the safeguarding of this knowledge. The result obtained from the assessment showed that the P&C present many gaps that prevent evaluating the real impact of trade on the traditional knowledge of medicinal plants in Indigenous and local communities. Therefore, in the same framework of the current P&C, the main recommendations contained in the international agreements and the suggestions of specialists in the field have been gathered to create a BioTrade standard that contributes to safeguarding traditional medicinal plant knowledge within a commercial context in any BioTrade initiative where the commercialized product is a sacred or native plant with traditional and cultural value for a community.
Human civilization has a great history of managing Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) services. But such services in rural areas have been neglected throughout our history. Numerous multimillion dollars WaSH interventions have been implemented in rural areas to eradicate open defecation, but most of them failed to create a demand for sanitation. Lack of equity and fair participation in approaches to change behavior and mindset, rather than habits, has made it hard for governments to achieve their WaSH related targets. Participatory rural sanitation approaches that focus on behavior change and ownership building among the community members have helped in the transition to open defecation free (ODF) societies. A justice-focused sanitation approach shows potential in fast-tracking this transition. Just transition is a concept that has not been endured in the sanitation discussion yet but shows the potential of sustainable WaSH solutions. This social empirical research has explored the feasibility of a justice-based sanitation approach guiding a transition towards societies with universal access to sanitation services. A just sanitation transition framework was adapted from the considered theoretical foundations and was used to map the capability and justice dimensions of two rural sanitation approaches being implemented in schools in the Mukuyu community in Trans-Nzoia county, Kenya. The adapted framework has been able to compute both sanitation approaches on a scoring tool, quantitatively assessing the productivity and justice dimensions of both approaches. This research has helped in establishing the viability of a just sanitation transition framework to produce an informed understanding of the potential of rural sanitation approaches to produce desired results while being just. Study findings help in filling research gaps and laying the foundation to the just transition debate in the sanitation sector and opens a window to further researches on the same, in the future.
Table Tennis Tutor: Forehand Strokes Classification Based on Multimodal Data and Neural Networks
(2021)
Beginner table-tennis players require constant real-time feedback while learning the fundamental techniques. However, due to various constraints such as the mentor’s inability to be around all the time, expensive sensors and equipment for sports training, beginners are unable to get the immediate real-time feedback they need during training. Sensors have been widely used to train beginners and novices for various skills development, including psychomotor skills. Sensors enable the collection of multimodal data which can be utilised with machine learning to classify training mistakes, give feedback, and further improve the learning outcomes. In this paper, we introduce the Table Tennis Tutor (T3), a multi-sensor system consisting of a smartphone device with its built-in sensors for collecting motion data and a Microsoft Kinect for tracking body position. We focused on the forehand stroke mistake detection. We collected a dataset recording an experienced table tennis player performing 260 short forehand strokes (correct) and mimicking 250 long forehand strokes (mistake). We analysed and annotated the multimodal data for training a recurrent neural network that classifies correct and incorrect strokes. To investigate the accuracy level of the aforementioned sensors, three combinations were validated in this study: smartphone sensors only, the Kinect only, and both devices combined. The results of the study show that smartphone sensors alone perform sub-par than the Kinect, but similar with better precision together with the Kinect. To further strengthen T3’s potential for training, an expert interview session was held virtually with a table tennis coach to investigate the coach’s perception of having a real-time feedback system to assist beginners during training sessions. The outcome of the interview shows positive expectations and provided more inputs that can be beneficial for the future implementations of the T3.
Remote sensing applications of change detection are increasingly in demand for many areas of land use and urbanization, and disaster risk reduction. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the New Urban Agenda by the United Nations call for risk monitoring. This study maps and assesses the urban area changes of 23 Mexican-USA border cities with a remote sensing-based approach. A literature study on existing studies on hazard mapping and social vulnerability in those cities reveals a need for further studies on urban growth. Using a multi-modal combination of aerial, declassified (CORONA, GAMBIT, HEXAGON programs), and recent (Sentinel-2) satellite imagery, this study expands existing land cover change assessments by capturing urban growth back to the 1940s. A Geographic Information System and census data assessment results reveal that massive urban growth has occurred on both sides of the national border. On the Mexican side, population and area growth exceeds the US cities in many cases. In addition, flood hazard exposure has grown along with growing city sizes, despite structural river training. These findings indicate a need for more risk monitoring that includes remote sensing data. It has socio-economic implications, too, as the social vulnerability on Mexican and US sides differ. This study calls for the maintenance and expansion of open data repositories to enable such transboundary risk comparisons. Common vulnerability variable sets could be helpful to enable better comparisons as well as comparable flood zonation mapping techniques. To enable risk monitoring, basic data such as urban boundaries should be mapped per decade and provided on open data platforms in GIS formats and not just in map viewers.
Pluvial floods claimed more than 180 lives in Germany in July 2021, when a large and slow-moving storm system affected Germany and many neighbouring countries. The death tolls and damages were the highest since 1962 in Germany, and soon after, the crisis management was under public critique. This study has undertaken an online survey to understand crisis management better and identify lessons to learn. It has received a positive interest among operational relief forces and other helpers (n = 2264). The findings reveal an overall satisfaction with the operation in general as well as personal lessons learned. It also reveals shortcomings in many areas, ranging from information distribution, coordination, parallel ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure resilience, and other factors. Just as well, areas for improvement of the crisis management system are suggested by the respondents. Cooperation and support by the affected population are perceived as positive. This helps to inform other areas of research that are necessary, such as studies on the perception by the affected people. The gaps in assessments of operational forces and some methodological constraints are discussed to advance future follow-up studies.
The 14th Annual Meeting of the Sponsoring Group Reinsurance was held 25 June 2021. Due to COVID-19, the event was held in an online format again this year. Some 80 representatives of the (re)insurance companies involved in the Sponsoring Group
took part in the meeting, along with guests. Offered for the seventh time as part of the Annual Meeting, the Researchers’ Corner gave the seven academic researchers at the Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance an opportunity to deliver a
presentation on the research project in which each is involved in 2021. Over the course of three sessions, the most important results of the scientific studies by the Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance were presented and discussed.
The heterogeneity of the topics presented reflects the dovetailing of Cologne Research Centre with reinsurance practice.
Floods are a known natural hazard in Germany, but the amount of precipitation and ensuing high death toll and damages after the events especially from 14 to 15 July 2021 came as a surprise. Almost immediately questions about failure in the early warning chains and the effectiveness of the German response emerged, also internationally. This article presents lessons to learn and argues against a blame culture. The findings are based on comparisons with findings from previous research projects carried out in the Rhein-Erft Kreis and the city of Cologne, as well as on discussions with operational relief forces after the 2021 events. The main disaster aspects of the 2021 flood are related to issuing and understanding warnings, a lack of information and data exchange, unfolding upon a situation of an ongoing pandemic and aggravated further by critical infrastructure failure. Increasing frequencies of flash floods and other extremes due to climate change are just one side of the transformation and challenge, Germany and neighbouring countries are facing. The vulnerability paradox also heavily contributes to it; German society became increasingly vulnerable to failure due to an increased dependency on its infrastructure and emergency system, and the ensuing expectations of the public for a perfect system.
In the literature, many studies outline the advantages of agrivoltaic (APV) systems from different viewpoints: optimized land use, productivity gain in both the energy and water sector, economic benefits, etc. A holistic analysis of an APV system is needed to understand its full advantages. For this purpose, a case study farm size of 0.15 ha has been chosen as a reference farm at a village in Niger, West Africa. Altogether four farming cases are considered. They are traditional rain-fed, irrigated with diesel-powered pumps, irrigated with solar pumps, and the APV system. The APV system is further analyzed under two scenarios: benefits to investors and combined benefits to investors and farmers. An economic feasibility analysis model is developed. Different economic indicators are used to present the results: gross margin, farm profit, benefit-cost ratio, and net present value (NPV). All the economic indicators obtained for the solar-powered irrigation system were positive, whereas all those for the diesel-powered system were negative. Additionally, the diesel system will emit annually about 4005 kg CO2 to irrigate the chosen reference farm. The land equivalent ratio (LER) was obtained at 1.33 and 1.13 for two cases of shading-induced yield loss excluded and included, respectively.
This paper studies the process of business cycle synchronization in the European Union and the euro area. As our baseline methodology we adopt rolling window correlation coefficients of various economic indicators, observed since 2000. Among the indicators, we distinguish between real economic indicators, like the real GDP growth and unemployment, and nominal indicators, like inflation and government budget. Given the direct implication of this kind of analysis for the common monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), special attention is paid to the pattern of business cycle synchronization in the core and peripheral members of the euro area. Our analysis of quarterly data covering the first two decades of the euro area shows that there was a certain synchronization tendency in the first years of the common currency. However, the European debt crisis halted the economic integration within the European Union and—even more so—within the euro area. Since the ECB can to a large extent intervene only with “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy instruments, this renders increasingly cumbersome the conduct of stabilisation policies within the euro area.
Linoleic acid hydroperoxides are versatile intermediates for the production of green note aroma compounds and bifunctional ω-oxo-acids. An enzyme cascade consisting of lipoxygenase, lipase and catalase was developed for one-pot synthesis of 13-hydroperoxyoctadecadienoic acid starting from safflower oil. Reaction conditions were optimized for hydroperoxidation using lipoxygenase 1 from Glycine max (LOX-1) in a solvent-free system. The addition of green surfactant Triton CG-110 improved the reaction more than two-fold and yields of >50% were obtained at linoleic acid concentrations up to 100 mM. To combine hydroperoxidation and oil hydrolysis, 12 lipases were screened for safflower oil hydrolysis under the reaction conditions optimized for LOX-1. Lipases from Candida rugosa and Pseudomonas fluorescens were able to hydrolyze safflower oil to >75% within 5 h at a pH of 8.0. In contrast to C. rugosa lipase, the enzyme from P. fluorescens did not exhibit a lag phase. Combination of P. fluorescens lipase and LOX-1 worked well upon LOX-1 dosage and a synergistic effect was observed leading to >80% of hydroperoxides. Catalase from Micrococcus lysodeikticus was used for in-situ oxygen production with continuous H2O2 dosage in the LOX-1/lipase reaction system. Foam generation was significantly reduced in the 3-enzyme cascade in comparison to the aerated reaction system. Safflower oil concentration was increased up to 300 mM linoleic acid equivalent and 13-hydroperoxides could be produced in a yield of 70 g/L and a regioselectivity of 90% within 7 h.
Water scarcity drives governments in arid and semi-arid regions to promote strategies for improving water use efficiency. Water-related research generally also plays an important role in the same countries and for the same reason. However, it remains unclear how to link the implementation of new government strategies and water-related research. This article’s principal objective is to present a novel approach that defines water-related research gaps from the point of view of a government strategy. The proposed methodology is based on an extensive literature review, followed by a systematic evaluation of the topics covered both in grey and peer-reviewed literature. Finally, we assess if and how the different literature sources contribute to the goals of the water strategy. The methodology was tested by investigating the impact of the water strategy of Jordan’s government (2008–2022) on the research conducted in the Azraq Basin, considering 99 grey and peer-reviewed documents. The results showed an increase in the number of water-related research documents from 37 published between 1985 and 2007 to 62 published between 2008 and 2018. This increase should not, however, be seen as a positive impact of increased research activity from the development of Jordan’s water strategy. In fact, the increase in water-related research activity matches the increasing trend in research production in Jordan generally. Moreover, the results showed that only about 80% of the documents align with the goals identified in the water strategy. In addition, the distribution of the documents among the different goals of the strategy is heterogeneous; hence, research gaps can be identified, i.e., goals of the water-strategy that are not addressed by any of the documents sourced. To foster innovative and demand-based research in the future, a matrix was developed that linked basin-specific research focus areas (RFAs) with the MWI strategy topics. In doing so, the goals that are not covered by a particular RFA are highlighted. This analysis can inspire researchers to develop and apply new topics in the Azraq Basin to address the research gaps and strengthen the connection between the RFAs and the strategy topics and goals. Moreover, the application of the proposed methodology can motivate future research to become demand-driven, innovative, and contribute to solving societal challenges.
The paper structure of historical prints is sort of a unique fingerprint. Paper with the same origin shows similar chain line distances. As the manual measurement of chain line distances is time consuming, the automatic detection of chain lines is beneficial. We propose an end-to-end trainable deep learning method for segmentation and parameterization of chain lines in transmitted light images of German prints from the 16th Century. We trained a conditional generative adversarial network with a multitask loss for line segmentation and line parameterization. We formulated a fully differentiable pipeline for line coordinates’ estimation that consists of line segmentation, horizontal line alignment, and 2D Fourier filtering of line segments, line region proposals, and differentiable line fitting. We created a dataset of high-resolution transmitted light images of historical prints with manual line coordinate annotations. Our method shows superior qualitative and quantitative chain line detection results with high accuracy and reliability on our historical dataset in comparison to competing methods. Further, we demonstrated that our method achieves a low error of less than 0.7 mm in comparison to manually measured chain line distances.
The paper focuses on a study of turbulence decay in flow with streamwise gradient. For the first time, an analytical solution of this problem was obtained based on the k‐ε model of turbulence in one‐dimensional (1D) approximation, as well as on the symmetry properties of the system of differential equations. Lie group technique enabled reducing the problem to a linear differential equation. The analytical solution enabled parametric studies, which are computationally cheap in comparison to CFD based simulations. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) in two‐dimensional approximation (2D) was used to validate the analytical results. Large eddy simulation (LES) Smagorinsky approach was used to close the LBM model. Computations revealed that the rate of turbulence decay is significantly different for the cases of positive and negative streamwise pressure gradient. The further comparisons showed that the analytical solution underpredicts the predictions by the numerical methodology, which can be attributed to the simplified problem statement used to derive the closed‐form analytical solution. Comparisons of calculations with experiments revealed that the theoretical models used in the study underpredict the measurements for flows with a positive pressure gradient. Hence it can be concluded that the LBM technique combined with the LES Smagorinsky model requires the further modification.
The production of pharmaceutical ingredients, intermediates and final products strongly depends on the utilization of water. Water is also required for the purification and preparation of reagents. Each specific application determines the respective water quality. In the European Union, the European Pharmacopeia (Ph. Eur.) contains the official standards that assure quality control of pharmaceutical products during their life cycle. According to this, the production of water for pharmaceutical use is mainly based on multi-stage distillation and membrane processes, especially, reverse osmosis. Membrane distillation (MD) could be an alternative process to these classical methods. It offers advantages in terms of energy demand and a compact apparatus design. In the following study, the preparation of pharmaceutical-grade water from tap water in a one-step process using MD is presented. Special emphasis is placed on the performance of two different module designs and on the selection of optimum process parameters.
Remote rural populations do not often have the luxury of viable multisource electricity generation systems. Considering fossil fuels for remote populated areas is not often a viable option due to the fuel transportation costs and the population’s socioeconomic status. Extending the grid is often economically prohibitive. This paper proposes possible ways in which Mali could increase the rate of population with access to electricity by 2050 using Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) and geographical information tools. The current energy situation is assessed, and multiple demand and supply scenarios are created to find the most viable option in environmental and economic dimensions. A minimum of 50% reduction of biomass consumption in the residential sector and a maximum of 71% was achieved through the combination of grid extension and decentralized solar PV. Solar PV becomes the preferable option when enough time for the effects of electricity on income is given. When these effects are not present, solar PV is still a better option, as the amount of biomass replaced with electricity is reduced.
Currently, difficulties such as the depletion of fossil fuel resources and the associated environmental pollution have driven the rise of other energy systems based on green energy sources.
In this research, modeling and a viability study of grid-connected and islanded photovoltaic (PV) power systems for supplying the residential load in Mekelle City, Ethiopia, were carried out considering the country’s emerging utility tariff plan for 2021 and beyond. The technical viability of the proposed supply option was analyzed using PVGIS, PVWatts and HOMER Pro tool, while the economic and environmental optimization aspects were carried out using HOMER Pro. Sensitivity analyses and output comparisons among the three renewable energy simulation tools are presented.
The results showed that under the consideration of an incremental electricity tariff plan (up to 2021), the analyzed cost of energy of the grid/PV system is around 12% lower than the utility grid tariff. Moreover, we also found that by taking the continuous global solar PV cost reduction into account, the cost of energy of the modeled islanded operation of solar PV power units totally broke the grid tariff in Ethiopia after 2029 based on the tariff for 2021 and well before with the expected escalation of the grid tariff on an annual basis. The technical performance of the system realized through PVGIS and PVWatts was almost comparable to the HOMER Pro outputs. Thus, this investigation will offer a clear direction to the concerned target groups and policy developers in the evolution of PV power supply options throughout the technically viable locations in the country.
Due to reasons of sustainability and conservation of resources, polyurethane (PU)-based systems with preferably neutral carbon footprints are in increased focus of research and development. The proper design and development of bio-based polyols are of particular interest since such polyols may have special property profiles that allow the novel products to enter new applications. Sophorolipids (SL) represent a bio-based toolbox for polyol building blocks to yield diverse chemical products. For a reasonable evaluation of the potential for PU chemistry, however, further investigations in terms of synthesis, derivatization, reproducibility, and reactivity towards isocyanates are required. It was demonstrated that SL can act as crosslinker or as plasticizer in PU systems depending on employed stoichiometry. (ω-1)-hydroxyl fatty acids can be derived from SL and converted successively to polyester polyols and PU. Additionally, (ω-1)-hydroxyl fatty acid azides can be prepared indirectly from SL and converted to A/B type PU by Curtius rearrangement.