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Proceedings des Researchers‘ Corner zur 12. Jahrestagung des Förderkreises Rückversicherung 2019
(2019)
Am 5. Juli 2019 fand die 12. Jahrestagung des Förderkreises Rückversicherung in Niederkassel bei Köln statt. Etwa 80 Repräsentanten der in dem Förderkreis mitwirkenden (Rück-) Versicherungsunternehmen und Gäste nahmen daran teil. Im Rahmen der Jahrestagung wurde zum fünften Mal der Researchers‘ Corner durchgeführt, in dessen Verlauf acht der in der Kölner Forschungsstelle
Rückversicherung beschäftigten wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter*innen einen Vortrag zu dem jeweilig aktuell bearbeiteten Forschungsprojekt hielten.
In drei Sessions – mit je 2-3 parallel gehaltenen Vorträgen mit Poster – wurden die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen der Kölner
Forschungsstelle Rückversicherung präsentiert und diskutiert. Die Heterogenität der vorgetragenen Themen der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter*innen spiegelt die
Verzahnung der Kölner Forschungsstelle mit der Rückversicherungspraxis wider.
Session 1
a) Manuel Dietmann (M.Sc.): Zunehmende Bedeutung der
Risikomanagementfunktion in Versicherungsunternehmen
b) Robert Joniec (M.Sc., FCII, cand. PhD): Wie geht es dem Rückversicherungs-Zyklus?
c) Wolfgang Koch (M.Sc., FCII): Informationsasymmetrien
zwischen Rückversicherungsmaklern und Zedenten
Session 2
a) Jörg Dirks (M.Sc., FCII): Unbemannte Fluggeräte
– Evolution des Luftfahrt-(Rück-)Versicherungsmarktes
b) Fabian Lassen (M.Sc., FCII): Senkung der Volatilität durch Einsatz eines versicherungstechnischen Swaps
c) Fabian Pütz (M.Sc., cand. PhD): Transfer von Cat-Risiken von Schwellenländern aus volkswirtschaftlicher Perspektive
Session 3
a) Kai-Olaf Knocks (M.A., FCII): Der ILS-Markt 2019 – abgeschreckt oder abwartend?
b) Lihong Wang (M.Sc., FCII, cand. PhD): China InsurTech Development
Mit der Veröffentlichungsreihe „Proceedings des Researchers‘ Corner“ entspricht die Kölner Forschungsstelle Rückversicherung dem Wunsch, die
Forschungsergebnisse unserer Wissenschaftler*innen sowie die entsprechenden Poster und Diskussionen zu publizieren. Dabei werden die Titel gemäß der oben
aufgeführten Agenda des Researchers‘ Corner der 12. Jahrestagung des Förderkreises Rückversicherung wiedergegeben. Im Rahmen der Veranstaltung führte Herr Prof. Materne des Weiteren ein Interview mit Herrn Ingo Wichelhaus (Senior Director, Mount Street) zum Thema Risiko- und Portfoliomanagement. Hierbei wurde insbesondere auf das breite Risikospektrum von Finanzierungen im Schifffahrtssektor eingegangen.
Unser Dank gilt den Fördermittelgebern, die sowohl diese Veranstaltung als auch die Forschung der Wissenschaftler*innen erst ermöglichen.
Grasping and manipulation with anthropomorphic robotic and prosthetic hands presents a scientific challenge regarding mechanical design, sensor system, and control. Apart from the mechanical design of such hands, embedding sensors needed for closed-loop control of grasping tasks remains a hard problem due to limited space and required high level of integration of different components. In this paper we present a scalable design model of artificial fingers, which combines mechanical design and embedded electronics with a sophisticated multi-modal sensor system consisting of sensors for sensing normal and shear force, distance, acceleration, temperature, and joint angles. The design is fully parametric, allowing automated scaling of the fingers to arbitrary dimensions in the human hand spectrum. To this end, the electronic parts are composed of interchangeable modules that facilitate the echanical scaling of the fingers and are fully enclosed by the mechanical parts of the finger. The resulting design model allows deriving freely scalable and multimodally sensorised fingers for robotic and prosthetic hands. Four physical demonstrators are assembled and tested to evaluate the approach.
Sensors can monitor physical attributes and record multimodal data in order to provide feedback. The application calligraphy trainer, exploits these affordances in the context of handwriting learning. It records the expert’s handwriting performance to compute an expert model. The application then uses the expert model to provide guidance and feedback to the learners.
However, new learners can be overwhelmed by the feedback as handwriting learning is a tedious task. This paper presents the pilot study done with the calligraphy trainer to evaluate the mental effort induced by various types of feedback provided by the application. Ten participants, five in the control group and five in the treatment group, who were Ph.D. students in the technology-enhanced learning domain, took part in the study. The participants used the application to learn three characters from the Devanagari script. The results show higher mental effort in the treatment group when all types of feedback are provided simultaneously. The mental efforts for individual feedback were similar to the control group. In conclusion, the feedback provided by the calligraphy trainer does not impose high mental effort and, therefore, the design considerations of the calligraphy trainer can be insightful for multimodal feedback designers.
Web browsers use HTTP caches to reduce the amount of data to be transferred over the network and allow Web pages to load faster. Content such as scripts, images, and style sheets, which are static most of the time or shared across multiple websites, are stored and loaded locally when recurring requests ask for cached resources. This behaviour can be exploited if the cache is based on a naive implementation. This paper summarises possible attacks on the browser cache and shows through extensive experiments that even modern web browsers still do not provide enough safeguards to protect their users. Moreover, the available built-in as well as addable cache controls offer rather limited functionality in terms of protection and ease of use. Due to the volatile and inhomogeneous APIs for controlling the cache in modern browsers, the development of enhanced user-centric cache controls remains -until further notice- in the hands of browser manufacturers.
The ‘Energy Crisis’ has become the talk of the town in pretty much every developing and lower developing countries in today’s world. It is characterized by a state where the country’s locally available energy resources are being depleted and it is dependent on imported fuel. The problem is considered as although not parallel, but a descendant of the food crisis in terms of the seriousness of the problems in developing nations essentially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Ethiopia is one such country which nevertheless going through a rapid scale of development (nearly 11 % annual growth rate as of 2017 according to the World Bank) and also is endowed with an enormous amount of natural resources such as hydro, wind, solar, geothermal energy potential. The Ethiopian power sector is heavily dependent on the country’s hydropower resources. However, it needs to diversify its energy sector and integrate new and other renewable energy sources because, in the longer term, its extreme hydropower dependence may put its power sector vulnerable to natural risks like droughts which are very likely scenarios due to the climate change. Since the lack of access to modern forms of energy services left no choice for the Ethiopians than to continue their traditional biomass use, and it results in unsustainable environmental harm with deforestation, soil erosion, and many others. To address this issue, Ethiopia is taking necessary steps towards climate-friendly industrialization of the economy.
In order to understand this transition, a socio-technical analysis of Ethiopian ambitious transformation from an agrarian society to a climate resilient green society has been presented in this paper. An analytical framework will be formulated as a prerequisite for the study by introducing the theory of Multilevel Perspective (MLP). This theory enables the understanding of three different levels of socio-technical environment namely niches, regime, and landscape in which the respective actors interact with each other to facilitate the process of transition. As a part of laying the groundwork, this thorough analysis constitutes all the country’s energy-related activities and associated energy demands, conversion technologies, current fuel mix, primary energy resources, and energy policies in the Ethiopian energy system. The LEAP analysis results from Mr. Md Alam Mondal and group are summarized to obtain an understanding of the country’s total energy demand scenarios.
Consequently, the actors from each socio-technical level have been identified in the context of Ethiopia and their dynamics of interaction have been explained in order to understand the process of energy system transition of Ethiopia in the direction of diversification of its energy system and hence result in the expansion of new renewable energy sector. Most importantly the assessment suggests that the transition process is majorly driven by top-down forces and intra-level reconfiguration of regime actors. There are no bottom-up forces acting as only a little research and development work takes place in the country to develop new radical changes/technological niches. A developing country like Ethiopia has undoubtedly a bright future ahead with all systems in place and the nature-gifted natural resource potential. The ambitious goals set by the country and the international help from developed allies are definitely working in tandem to ensure their accomplishment. With its guiding vision towards development and the global climate change movement, Ethiopia surely has the potential to lead by example.
Die 11. Jahrestagung des Förderkreises Rückversicherung zum Thema Rückversicherung fand am 13. Juli 2018 in Niederkassel bei Köln statt. Etwa 85 eingeladene Repräsentanten aus dem Förderkreis unterstützenden (Rück-)Versicherungsunternehmen und Gäste nahmen daran teil.
Im Rahmen der Jahrestagung wurde zum vierten Mal der Researchers‘ Corner durchgeführt, in dessen Verlauf acht der in der Kölner Forschungsstelle Rückversicherung beschäftigten Wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter einen Vortrag zu dem jeweilig individuell bearbeiteten Forschungsprojekt hielten. Des Weiteren wurden von Prof. Materne Interviews mit den Herren Dr. Falk Niehörster (Climate Risk Innovations) und Dr. Magnus Kobel (YAS.life) geführt. Dr. Niehörster berichtete über seine Forschungen und Beratungstätigkeit hinsichtlich der maritimen Klimaveränderung und Dr. Kobel über das Geschäftsmodell seines InsurTecs YAS.life und seine allgemeinen Erfahrungen bei Gründung und Entwicklungen von Start-ups.
In drei Sessions – mit je 2-3 jeweils drei parallel laufenden Vorträgen mit Poster – wurden die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen der Kölner Forschungsstelle Rückversicherung präsentiert und diskutiert. Die Heterogenität in den vorgetragenen Themen der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter spiegelt die Verzahnung der Forschungstheorie mit der Praxistätigkeit wider.
This project is focused on the generation of hardware independent code for PLCs and the comparison for energy consumption patterns of hydraulic and electric drive unit. This works is dedicated to MLC (mould level control) in a continuous casting machine, which is used to cast steel slabs continuously. The code generation is done with the help of the PLC coder which is present in the software Simulink. The programming is done entirely in MATLAB. The application of the generated code is tested on the Siemens S7-1500 PLC. For executing the code and the development of the HMI (human machine
interface) Siemens software TIA Portal V15 has been used. Moreover, for further analysis of signals and testing the code, a PDA or process data acquisition system, IBA system is used. For energy analysis also the IBA system is used.
La Picasa basin, an interjurisdictional endorreic basin of 5282 km2 located in the “Central Pampa” in Argentina, has suffered repeated flooding caused by an increasing water level of La Picasa lagoon, affecting livelihoods, infrastructure, transportation and agriculture. Although water infrastructure has been built to regulate water excesses, it has not been effective in reducing the flood risk.
To improve the knowledge of the hydrological system, the master’s thesis aimed to develop a water balance model of La Picasa lagoon at a monthly time step between the hydrological years 2007/2008 and 2016/2017. Specifically, the objectives were to identify and quantify the most important components and processes determining its water level, area and volume and to propose hypothetical simulation scenarios based on different pumping operation schemes.
The description of the conceptual model and implementation of a sensitivity analysis allowed to identify the inflow and outflow components of the water balance and quantify their relative contributions, namely precipitation, water discharge from channels, surface runoff from surrounding sub-basins of the lagoon, evaporation and pumping. The performance tests applied to the model during the calibration and validation showed a very good performance. Additionally, two simulation scenarios were proposed, namely potential pumping and adjusted pumping, which reflected different trajectories of the water balance.
The master’s thesis concluded that precipitation and evaporation were the most determinant inflow and outflow components in the water balance of La Picasa lagoon respectively. However, the flooding event in 2016/2017 was caused by a simultaneous reduction of net evaporation and an increase in water discharge, surface runoff and intermittent pumping. The simulation scenarios suggested that an optimal operation of the pumping stations could have been effective to increase the storage capacity of the lagoon. However, during longer humid periods, it might not be enough to outweigh additional inflows.