500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
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- Fakultät 12 / Institut für Technologie und Ressourcenmanagement in den Tropen und Subtropen (28)
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- Fakultät 02 / Cologne Institute of Conservation Sciences (1)
- Fakultät 04 / Institut für Versicherungswesen (1)
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Due to the global phenomenon of climate change the region of Mara Siana is projected to increasingly face extreme weather events that particularly comprise prolonged droughts and
heavier rainfalls. To be able to adequately adapt to these changing circumstances and maintain their livelihoods communities need to build respective capacities. As the main objective, this research aims at determining landowners’ climate change adaptative capacity (CCAC) across different villages in Mara Siana. Accordingly, a semi-quantitative approach was carried out including qualitative interviews and the subsequent quantitative calculation of CCAC based on a multidimensional indicator set and a respective coding
system. In addition to predominantly positive results of socio-cultural characteristics and the quality of natural resources, this work reveals clear weaknesses and potential for improvement in the areas of income security and financial stability, the expansion and resilience of infrastructure, and the relationship between communities and local authorities. Moreover, differences in capacity results are not only identified between the investigated villages as well as between individual households but also systemic disadvantage in capacity building affecting female landowners and community members can be indicated from the obtained interview data. Therefore, this research gives concrete recommendations for the implementation and verification of suitable adaptive measures that are particularly tailored for the improvement of low-performance indicators while following a gendertransformative approach and thus hold the potential to increase CCAC in the long-term.
The internal armed conflict in Colombia has been closely linked to the illegal exploitation of natural resources and the appropriation of territories, including the planting of illicit coca crops. This activity has led to deforestation and the degradation of natural ecosystems, aggravating the problems associated with violence and drug trafficking. Regions with little state presence, such as Catatumbo, were particularly affected.
Following the signing of the peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016, a post-agreement scenario emerged that highlighted the need to address complex socio-environmental conflicts in affected regions. This research aims to identify the potential of environmental governance to contribute to peacebuilding and the reduction of deforestation associated with illicit coca cultivation.
A qualitative methodological approach was used in this study, which seeks to integrate research methods and techniques such as: documentary review, participant observation, semi-structured and in-depth interviews, and mapping of the current reality through the Theory U 3D mapping tool.
The results include the socio-environmental context of the territory of analysis, describing the origins of the conflict of deforestation for illicit crops, where the growing dynamics of transformation of the sowing of illicit crops are related, as well as the dynamics of deforestation in the territory of analysis. Tthe identification and analysis of the most relevant actors that have historically participated in the processes of deforestation for illicit crops, their characterization according to the relations of power, interest and legitimisation legitimization. The forms of participation and conflict resolution in the management of natural resources.
Considering as a contextual axis two important processes at a socio-political level in Colombia and the territory under analysis, which correspond to the consolidation of the Comprehensive Rural Reform after the peace agreement and the post-agreement context. Several intervention proposals were proposed from the perspective of environmental governance related to the reconstruction of the social fabric, the reconversion of productive systems, and the resignification of new dynamics of natural resource management. In this sense, the potential of environmental governance is discussed as a useful framework for establishing new relationships based on horizontality in which the actors possess sovereignty over the territory, participation and representativeness in the management of natural resources.
Key words: Deforestation, illicit coca crops, environmental governance, forest management, peacebuilding.
Mangrove forests have been studied broadly in the recent three decades for their outstanding ability to sequester carbon in the beneath soil and other beneficial ecosystem services. Endeavors to conserve and regenerate mangrove cover are still increasing worldwide as a mechanism to include them in NDCs and carbon markets. Therefore, decision-makers in the private and public sectors require identify possible areas for conservation and restoration prior to blue carbon project investment. Thus, an integral assessment of potential mangrove carbon reservoirs in a landscape scale, considering environmental and socioeconomic factors was performed. This study was aimed to determine areas with the highest blue carbon sequestration potential in the Gulf of Guayaquil through the construction of a Blue Carbon Potential Index (BCPI) based on Spatial Multicriteria Analysis (SMCA). A narrative integrative literature review was employed to select indicators of mangrove carbon sequestration gains and losses. These indicators were pondered following the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the judgments of two experts and reclassified in four potential categories based on their thresholds. Since no consensus was achieved in the indicator importance hierarchization, a comparative of equal weighting method and AHP weighting was implemented. The linear combination rule was used to integrate these factors into a unique-scaled index supported by a geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that 15.82% and 16.21% of the study area belonged to high and moderate potential of blue carbon sequestration respectively. Moreover, no significant differences were found between the two weighting methods applied. The BCPI provides a comprehensive understanding of spatial distribution of blue carbon potential reservoirs and grants a quantification of this potential to prioritize conservation and restoration areas.
Aim: European cities are facing heighten hydrological risks as a result of climate change at the same time as ecological degradation has reduced the environmental capacity to absorb and regulate such fluctuations. Climate forecasts predict more intense convective rainfall and winter flood events in the Wupper Basin in Germany, against a background trend of reduced mean rainfall during the summer months. On 14 July 2021 intense convective rainfall fell at points across Western Germany and led to flash floods in the Wupper Basin, many sites were inundated and the Wupper and Dhünn rivers rose to new record highs. Green-blue infrastructure offers strategies to reduce the impacts of hazards at the same time as providing a range of co-benefits. A study was undertaken to find which green-blue interventions will be most effective at reducing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards for a study area in the west of the Wupper basin. Furthermore, as landscape features are highly influential in hydrology, the study sought to establish which sites within the landscape can provide maximum results from green-blue interventions, with a minimum of change to current land uses.
Region: Europe, peri-urban and rural, undulating, low mountainous landscapes
Methods: Literature findings on observed and projected climate data are summarised and long-term rainfall data from the study area is analysed to confirm rainfall trends. A state-of-the-art review is conducted and summarised to form a toolbox of potential interventions. The most recent hazardous hydrometeorological event is analysed to inform the locational priorities of potential interventions. Landscape features that have the most influence on basin hydrology are identified from the literature. These sites are paired with green-blue interventions that are shown to have the highest potential impact on interception, infiltration, runoff and flooding. A series of spatial analyses are carried out to produce maps detailing location and intervention with high potential to reduce the impact of hydrometeorological hazards in the study area. All of the evidence gathered from the literature analysis is combined in an implementation guide for green-blue interventions in the Wupper Basin.
Results: The hazards caused by the hydrometeorological extremes of flooding and drought are addressed or minimised through the green-blue interventions that increase interception and infiltration and reduce runoff and flooding. Priority locations are identified as the riparian zone with slope ≤15%, hilltop, lower slope and toe slope, all locations with a slope ≥30% and areas with a high topographic wetness index (TWI). A series of spatial analyses were carried out and suggestions made including potential locations for retention or detention areas and ponds, sites for revegetation and potential locations for implementation of shelterbelts/hedgerows, buffer strips, conservation tillage or strip tillage, reduced mowing intensity or frequency and biochar additions. An implementation guide is created that provides a summary of the highest potential green-blue interventions and landscape locations, and a description of the mechanisms involved in addressing the hydrometeorological hazards.
Keywords: Green-blue interventions, hydrometeorological hazard reduction, Wupper Basin hydrology
Due to its location at the south-west coast of Ireland County (Co.) Cork is frequently affected by post tropical cyclones (PTCs). There have been several records of these post hurricanes in the past with the last severe PTC being Hurricane Ophelia in 2017. It caused severe disruption in the whole country, especially in Co. Cork with several thousand people without water, power and mobile service for up to 10 days and thousands of uprooted trees which blocked roads. PTCs, like Ophelia, will become more frequent under climate change conditions due to warmer sea surface temperatures and decreased vertical wind shear. Hence, hurricanes can reach northern latitudes more easily and have a higher chance of making landfall in Co. Cork. This thesis assesses the risk perception towards natural hazards (NHs) and the perception of the risk communication of hurricane Ophelia by the citizens of Co. Cork and suggests improvements in communication based on the people’s perception. This was achieved by conducting a standardised survey to analyse the perception. The risk communication chain, its content and media involved were evaluated with interviews with professionals involved in risk management in Ireland. Improvement suggestions were extracted of the survey and the expert interviews as well and have been ranked by the participating experts according to their importance. The people of Co. Cork are not overly concerned about being affected by NHs. The three hazards they feel threatened by most, after Ophelia hit the country, are storms, river floodings and hurricanes. Before Ophelia made landfall, they only ranked hurricanes in the 8th place (out of 8). Ergo, after experiencing Ophelia people are much more aware of hurricane risk in Ireland. People were very satisfied with the information they received during Ophelia. The improvements they wished for are: 1) information on how to deal with and how to prepare for impacts of the storm, 2) the impacts that can be expected locally and 3) information where to go to in case of severe impact to property. These are mostly in line with the improvements the experts ranked as most important for Cork. Experts voted the suggestion to include information on behavioural advice into risk communication before the NH hits and advice on how to organise for impacts afterwards as their number one priority. Their second rank is to have education and training for the citizens in Cork. On third place they voted for a change to impact forecasting. Even there are no central buildings or shelters available in Co. Cork, this improvement suggestion was only voted on rank 13 by the experts (out of 14). Having a participatory approach in risk communication can overcome the discrepancies between the wishes of the population and the ones of the experts and would lead to a better understanding of all stakeholders involved in risk communication and can reduce vulnerability of the people in Co. Cork to the impacts of NHs. The implementation of these activities would be in line with best practice examples and would support the guidelines of the Irish Framework for Major Emergency Management.
Circular economy (CE) has received considerable interest in recent years as a strategy to resolve some of our modern urban resource challenges, and circular city models often incorporate systems of urban agriculture in their design. Much work has analyzed the benefits of urban agriculture for creating a resilient food system and as a strategy for supporting urban green space and social cohesion, however, the contributions from business models that operate within urban agriculture have not been thoroughly studied. Many urban agriculture businesses often claim high levels of resource recycling and material circularity, though whether a resource efficiency throughout the entire product lifetime (including energy and material footprint for the cultivation equipment) in comparison to current industrial strategies is truly feasible or even possible is still to be debated. This thesis builds upon work that incorporates social dimensions of CE definitions and begins to research whether the potential resource efficiency contradiction can be justified as to make urban agriculture a valid approach for circular city design. This study examined an urban mushroom farm that implements a circular business model. A qualitative summary of the business operations and resource flows were unpacked and sorted into 24 socio-economic contributions based on their interpreted relevance. The interpreted data shows that an urban agriculture business model can contribute to the building blocks of a CE through economic, ecological, social, and spatial contributions. While these contributions can contribute positively to the operationalization of CE, potential trade-offs regarding resource efficiency, use of urban space, and investment priorities need to be considered and addressed to avoid a possible watering down or greenwashing of the CE concept.
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and land use change, has led to changes in the global climate. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to the impacts generated by climate change. For this reason, the challenge facing humanity today is to develop innovative solutions to address the complexity of agricultural sustainability.
On the other hand, sugarcane is one of the crops that emits the most pollutants into the atmosphere, mainly due to the burning of sugarcane before and after harvesting. Most of these atmospheric pollutants are precursors of climate change and have an impact on the health and quality of life of communities. Moreover, this agricultural practice causes the gradual deterioration of the soil, directly affecting sugarcane production. Consequently, several sugarcane-producing countries have established regulations or dispositions to eliminate this agricultural practice, and one option to eliminate it is the mechanization of harvesting. However, its implementation implies social, environmental, and economic impacts that must be analyzed systemically to avoid potential failures during the technological transition process. It is for this reason that this research, through the MICMAC method, focused on identifying the variables associated with the reduction of sugarcane burning in Campos dos Goytacazes and Tamasopo, to subsequently analyze their direct and indirect interrelationship, and, thus, determine the opportunities and limitations of each locality for the reduction of sugarcane burning.
Through this analysis, it became evident that although the technological transition is an imminent step for the sustainability of sugarcane cultivation, certain factors such as legislation, technological innovation, and the perception of the stakeholders regarding the consequences of sugarcane burning, is what defines in the study sites the speed and subsequent success of this process of change towards green harvesting.
Chagas disease is a parasitic infection endemic to America, caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi and mainly transmitted to humans by contact with insect species of the Triatominae subfamily (Hemiptera). The disease is known to affect disproportionally rural impoverished human communities where it is known to cause premature death and is considered a social and economic burden. The Mexican government has made important progress into the detection, surveillance, treatment, and prevention of the disease in the last decades, however, Chagas disease has also been reported in areas where it had not been previously reported, and there are still barriers for access to treatment. In the state of San Luis Potosi, the disease is more studied in the east, nevertheless, it has been estimated that the reported cases of the entire state have been underestimated. New approaches to detect Chagas risk areas could help prioritize locations for Chagas disease education and prevention programs, detect cases of the disease in a timely manner, and provide access to the necessary treatments. The objective of this study was to identify risk areas for the transmission of Chagas disease in San Luis Potosí using species distribution modelling to estimate vectors and reservoirs’ distributions. To do this, firstly, important vectors and one reservoir species of T. cruzi were identified by reviewing their reported infection rates in literature and the number of times reported in Mexico. Next, species distribution models were calculated for the chosen vector and reservoir species present in the state. The models were done using the Maxent algorithm. Lastly, the resulting distribution models were combined into a risk map by thresholding the model outputs to produce binary predictions and then performing an overlap spatial analysis. Vector species were found to have suitable areas in 36.08% of the state’s territory while areas suitable for both vectors and reservoir were 7.4% of the state’s total area. While this figure may look small at first glance, the analysis suggests that 30% of the rural population and 52% of the urban population of the state are living in an area suitable for vectors and reservoir and therefore at risk. Species distribution modelling can be a powerful tool for identifying human populations at risk of contracting Chagas disease. In the future, including different species of reservoirs into the analysis could help to discover new risk areas in the state.
Wetlands offer different ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being (Kovács et al., 2015). According to the Ramsar Convention Secretariat (2018) wetland located in urban areas have been threatened by several activities such as drainage, pollution, encroachment, agriculture, among others. On the other hand, wetland degradation reduces the resilience of hazards like floods and storm surges (Kumar et al., 2017). For that reason, ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) is an important strategy which enhances the conservation and restoration of ecosystems to reduce disaster risk aiming to sustainable development and resilience (Estrella & Saalismaa, 2013). Despite international recognition of the importance of wetlands, urban wetlands have diminished their capacity to cope with flood threats (Boyer and Polasky, 2006) due to the aforementioned human impacts.
That is why this thesis aimed to identify the role of urban wetlands in Bogota, Colombia, that has an urban wetland complex that is recognised as a Ramsar site in 2018. However, wetlands in the city reduced its area from 50.000 hectares to less than 800, approximately, in less than 40 years, mainly because of urban expansion and encroachment (IDIGER, 2018). To achieve this objective, an analysis of the city’s risk management framework was conducted, as well as a stakeholder analysis based on semi-structured interviews and a spatial-temporal analysis for the period 1998-2017, for which the Jaboque wetland was used as a case study. This wetland is located near the Bogotá River and is in the area threatened by flooding.
It was possible to determine that national and district policies on wetlands, biodiversity, and climate change adaptation address some ecosystem functions. Still, disaster risk reduction is not strongly linked to them. Thus, based on the case study, the wetlands in Bogota have not played a decisive role in flood risk management in the city.
Urbanization processes are one of the main factors for habitat loss and fragmentation, driving global biodiversity loss and species extinction. The neotropical Atlantic forest in Brazil is considered a global key biodiversity hotspot and used to be one of the most extensive forests of the Americas. Due to substantial deforestation over centuries, its landscape was transformed into a mosaic of small forest fragments surrounded by a predominantly agricultural matrix. Urban expansion and rural urbanization have created peri-urban zones, which still can harbor natural habitat remnants,
contributing to biological diversity and thus providing essential ecosystem services to urban and rural areas. The maintenance of such ecosystem services requires an understanding of the ecological processes in the ecosystem. A prerequisite for such an in-depth insight is the quantification of the underlying ecosystem functions. The ecosystem function pest control, a trophic interaction between insectivorous birds and herbivorous arthropods, was quantified in an empirical study using artificial caterpillars as prey models. This technique allows the identification of predator groups and the assessment of their predation rates. A total of 888 plasticine caterpillars were distributed at eight sites in secondary forest fragments surrounding the university campus of the federal university of São Carlos (UFScar) in peri-urban Sorocaba, southeastern Brazil. In sixteen point counts, 72 insect-eating birds, belonging to 19 species, were identified as possible artificial caterpillar attackers. Local habitat variables were measured to describe the forest vegetation structure and the landscape context. The study aimed to assess which structural components of the
forest fragments, together with the recorded bird community variables (abundance, richness, αdiversity), best explain the estimated predation rates by birds. The mean predation rate for birds was 8.25 ± 6.3 % for a reference period of eight days, representing the first quantification of the ecosystem function pest control for the study area. The three treatments of caterpillar placement heights (ground, stem: 0.5 -1.0 m, leaf: 1.5 - 2.0 m) were the best and only estimator to explain bird
predation rates. The little dense understory and ground vegetation might have facilitated the accessibility of artificial caterpillars, especially for carnivorous arthropods and birds. The detected contrast in their foraging and predation patterns suggests that arthropods and birds complement each other in their function of pest control. Bird predation rates were found to be negatively related to the vegetation structure. Thus, more open habitats, with less understory and low tree density, but high canopy cover and including dead trees were correlated with the highest predation rates and also exhibited more specialized forest-dependent bird species. This study confirms the importance of the maintenance of forest fragments in peri-urban areas, even if they are small, to preserve forest-associated birds, to contribute to the biological diversity on a broader scale, and to prevent the loss of ecosystem functions and services, mitigating some of the adverse effects of urbanization. Further investigation of the effect among the three treatments of caterpillar
placement on the predation rates is encouraged, including comparative studies among different habitat types. For future studies, it is recommended to model the avian community variables with the vegetation structure measures to predict habitat preferences of insectivorous birds. Therefore, the sampling of more units and on a bigger scale, including over a more extended period, is necessary to improve the robustness of the results, which could provide the basis for a monetary analysis of the ecosystem service pest control by birds.