500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
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Due to the global phenomenon of climate change the region of Mara Siana is projected to increasingly face extreme weather events that particularly comprise prolonged droughts and
heavier rainfalls. To be able to adequately adapt to these changing circumstances and maintain their livelihoods communities need to build respective capacities. As the main objective, this research aims at determining landowners’ climate change adaptative capacity (CCAC) across different villages in Mara Siana. Accordingly, a semi-quantitative approach was carried out including qualitative interviews and the subsequent quantitative calculation of CCAC based on a multidimensional indicator set and a respective coding
system. In addition to predominantly positive results of socio-cultural characteristics and the quality of natural resources, this work reveals clear weaknesses and potential for improvement in the areas of income security and financial stability, the expansion and resilience of infrastructure, and the relationship between communities and local authorities. Moreover, differences in capacity results are not only identified between the investigated villages as well as between individual households but also systemic disadvantage in capacity building affecting female landowners and community members can be indicated from the obtained interview data. Therefore, this research gives concrete recommendations for the implementation and verification of suitable adaptive measures that are particularly tailored for the improvement of low-performance indicators while following a gendertransformative approach and thus hold the potential to increase CCAC in the long-term.
Mangrove forests have been studied broadly in the recent three decades for their outstanding ability to sequester carbon in the beneath soil and other beneficial ecosystem services. Endeavors to conserve and regenerate mangrove cover are still increasing worldwide as a mechanism to include them in NDCs and carbon markets. Therefore, decision-makers in the private and public sectors require identify possible areas for conservation and restoration prior to blue carbon project investment. Thus, an integral assessment of potential mangrove carbon reservoirs in a landscape scale, considering environmental and socioeconomic factors was performed. This study was aimed to determine areas with the highest blue carbon sequestration potential in the Gulf of Guayaquil through the construction of a Blue Carbon Potential Index (BCPI) based on Spatial Multicriteria Analysis (SMCA). A narrative integrative literature review was employed to select indicators of mangrove carbon sequestration gains and losses. These indicators were pondered following the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the judgments of two experts and reclassified in four potential categories based on their thresholds. Since no consensus was achieved in the indicator importance hierarchization, a comparative of equal weighting method and AHP weighting was implemented. The linear combination rule was used to integrate these factors into a unique-scaled index supported by a geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that 15.82% and 16.21% of the study area belonged to high and moderate potential of blue carbon sequestration respectively. Moreover, no significant differences were found between the two weighting methods applied. The BCPI provides a comprehensive understanding of spatial distribution of blue carbon potential reservoirs and grants a quantification of this potential to prioritize conservation and restoration areas.
Aim: European cities are facing heighten hydrological risks as a result of climate change at the same time as ecological degradation has reduced the environmental capacity to absorb and regulate such fluctuations. Climate forecasts predict more intense convective rainfall and winter flood events in the Wupper Basin in Germany, against a background trend of reduced mean rainfall during the summer months. On 14 July 2021 intense convective rainfall fell at points across Western Germany and led to flash floods in the Wupper Basin, many sites were inundated and the Wupper and Dhünn rivers rose to new record highs. Green-blue infrastructure offers strategies to reduce the impacts of hazards at the same time as providing a range of co-benefits. A study was undertaken to find which green-blue interventions will be most effective at reducing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards for a study area in the west of the Wupper basin. Furthermore, as landscape features are highly influential in hydrology, the study sought to establish which sites within the landscape can provide maximum results from green-blue interventions, with a minimum of change to current land uses.
Region: Europe, peri-urban and rural, undulating, low mountainous landscapes
Methods: Literature findings on observed and projected climate data are summarised and long-term rainfall data from the study area is analysed to confirm rainfall trends. A state-of-the-art review is conducted and summarised to form a toolbox of potential interventions. The most recent hazardous hydrometeorological event is analysed to inform the locational priorities of potential interventions. Landscape features that have the most influence on basin hydrology are identified from the literature. These sites are paired with green-blue interventions that are shown to have the highest potential impact on interception, infiltration, runoff and flooding. A series of spatial analyses are carried out to produce maps detailing location and intervention with high potential to reduce the impact of hydrometeorological hazards in the study area. All of the evidence gathered from the literature analysis is combined in an implementation guide for green-blue interventions in the Wupper Basin.
Results: The hazards caused by the hydrometeorological extremes of flooding and drought are addressed or minimised through the green-blue interventions that increase interception and infiltration and reduce runoff and flooding. Priority locations are identified as the riparian zone with slope ≤15%, hilltop, lower slope and toe slope, all locations with a slope ≥30% and areas with a high topographic wetness index (TWI). A series of spatial analyses were carried out and suggestions made including potential locations for retention or detention areas and ponds, sites for revegetation and potential locations for implementation of shelterbelts/hedgerows, buffer strips, conservation tillage or strip tillage, reduced mowing intensity or frequency and biochar additions. An implementation guide is created that provides a summary of the highest potential green-blue interventions and landscape locations, and a description of the mechanisms involved in addressing the hydrometeorological hazards.
Keywords: Green-blue interventions, hydrometeorological hazard reduction, Wupper Basin hydrology
Austria is committed to the net-zero climate goal along with the European Union. This requires all sectors to be decarbonized. Hereby, hydrogen plays a vital role as stated in the national hydrogen strategy. A report commissioned by the Austrian government predicts a minimum hydrogen demand of 16 TWh per year in Austria in 2040. Besides hydrogen imports, domestic production can ensure supply. Hence, this study analyses the levelized cost of hydrogen for an off-grid production plant including a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer, wind power and solar photovoltaics in Austria. In the first step, the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources are determined by conducting a geographic information system analysis. Secondly, the levelized cost of electricity for wind power and solarphotovoltaics plants in Austria is calculated. Thirdly, the most cost-efficient portfolio of wind power and solar photovoltaics plants is determined using electricity generation profiles with a 10-min granularity. The modelled system variants differ among location, capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. Finally, selected variables are tested for their sensitivities. With the applied model, the hydrogen production cost for decentralized production plants can be calculated for any specific location. The levelized cost of hydrogen estimates range from 3.08 EUR/kg to 13.12 EUR/kg of hydrogen, whereas it was found that the costs are most sensitive to the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. The novelty of the paper stems from the model applied that calculates the levelized cost of renewable hydrogen in an off-grid hydrogen production system. The model finds a cost-efficient portfolio of directly coupled wind power and solar photovoltaics systems for 80 different variants in an Austria-specific context.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, river restoration projects are increasing, but many lack strategic planning and monitoring. We tested the applicability of a rapid visual social–ecological stream assessment method for restoration planning, complemented by a citizen survey on perceptions and uses of blue and green infrastructure. We applied the method at three urban streams in Jarabacoa (Dominican Republic) to identify and prioritize preferred areas for nature-based solutions. The method provides spatially explicit information for strategic river restoration planning, and its efficiency makes it suitable for use in data-poor contexts. It identifies well-preserved, moderately altered, and critically impaired areas regarding their hydromorphological and socio-cultural conditions, as well as demands on green and blue infrastructure. The transferability of the method can be improved by defining reference states for assessing the hydromorphology of tropical rivers, refining socio-cultural parameters to better address river services and widespread urban challenges, and balancing trade-offs between ecological and social restoration goals.
The European heating sector is currently heavily dominated by fossil fuels. Composting is a naturally occurring process in which heat is liberated from the composting substrate at a higher rate than the process needs to support itself. This difference could be harnessed for low-heat applications such as residential consumption, alleviating some of the impacts fossil fuel emissions represent. In this study, the composting heat recovery reported in the literature was compared to the energy demand for space and water heating in four European countries. A review of potential heat production from the waste representative of the residential sector was performed. We found that the theoretically recoverable composting heat does not significantly reduce the need for district heating. However, it can significantly reduce the energy demand for water heating, being able to supply countries such as Greece with between 36% and 100% of the yearly hot water demand, or 12% to 53% of the yearly hot water of countries such as Switzerland, depending on the efficiency of heat recovery.
Due to its location at the south-west coast of Ireland County (Co.) Cork is frequently affected by post tropical cyclones (PTCs). There have been several records of these post hurricanes in the past with the last severe PTC being Hurricane Ophelia in 2017. It caused severe disruption in the whole country, especially in Co. Cork with several thousand people without water, power and mobile service for up to 10 days and thousands of uprooted trees which blocked roads. PTCs, like Ophelia, will become more frequent under climate change conditions due to warmer sea surface temperatures and decreased vertical wind shear. Hence, hurricanes can reach northern latitudes more easily and have a higher chance of making landfall in Co. Cork. This thesis assesses the risk perception towards natural hazards (NHs) and the perception of the risk communication of hurricane Ophelia by the citizens of Co. Cork and suggests improvements in communication based on the people’s perception. This was achieved by conducting a standardised survey to analyse the perception. The risk communication chain, its content and media involved were evaluated with interviews with professionals involved in risk management in Ireland. Improvement suggestions were extracted of the survey and the expert interviews as well and have been ranked by the participating experts according to their importance. The people of Co. Cork are not overly concerned about being affected by NHs. The three hazards they feel threatened by most, after Ophelia hit the country, are storms, river floodings and hurricanes. Before Ophelia made landfall, they only ranked hurricanes in the 8th place (out of 8). Ergo, after experiencing Ophelia people are much more aware of hurricane risk in Ireland. People were very satisfied with the information they received during Ophelia. The improvements they wished for are: 1) information on how to deal with and how to prepare for impacts of the storm, 2) the impacts that can be expected locally and 3) information where to go to in case of severe impact to property. These are mostly in line with the improvements the experts ranked as most important for Cork. Experts voted the suggestion to include information on behavioural advice into risk communication before the NH hits and advice on how to organise for impacts afterwards as their number one priority. Their second rank is to have education and training for the citizens in Cork. On third place they voted for a change to impact forecasting. Even there are no central buildings or shelters available in Co. Cork, this improvement suggestion was only voted on rank 13 by the experts (out of 14). Having a participatory approach in risk communication can overcome the discrepancies between the wishes of the population and the ones of the experts and would lead to a better understanding of all stakeholders involved in risk communication and can reduce vulnerability of the people in Co. Cork to the impacts of NHs. The implementation of these activities would be in line with best practice examples and would support the guidelines of the Irish Framework for Major Emergency Management.
Circular economy (CE) has received considerable interest in recent years as a strategy to resolve some of our modern urban resource challenges, and circular city models often incorporate systems of urban agriculture in their design. Much work has analyzed the benefits of urban agriculture for creating a resilient food system and as a strategy for supporting urban green space and social cohesion, however, the contributions from business models that operate within urban agriculture have not been thoroughly studied. Many urban agriculture businesses often claim high levels of resource recycling and material circularity, though whether a resource efficiency throughout the entire product lifetime (including energy and material footprint for the cultivation equipment) in comparison to current industrial strategies is truly feasible or even possible is still to be debated. This thesis builds upon work that incorporates social dimensions of CE definitions and begins to research whether the potential resource efficiency contradiction can be justified as to make urban agriculture a valid approach for circular city design. This study examined an urban mushroom farm that implements a circular business model. A qualitative summary of the business operations and resource flows were unpacked and sorted into 24 socio-economic contributions based on their interpreted relevance. The interpreted data shows that an urban agriculture business model can contribute to the building blocks of a CE through economic, ecological, social, and spatial contributions. While these contributions can contribute positively to the operationalization of CE, potential trade-offs regarding resource efficiency, use of urban space, and investment priorities need to be considered and addressed to avoid a possible watering down or greenwashing of the CE concept.
Climate change includes the change of the long-term average values and the change of the tails of probability density functions, where the extreme events are located. However, obtaining average values are more straightforward than the high temporal resolution information necessary to catch the extreme events on those tails. Such information is difficult to get in areas lacking sufficient rain stations. Thanks to the development of Satellite Precipitation Estimates with a daily resolution, this problem has been overcome, so Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPI) can be calculated for the entire Colombian territory. However, Colombia is strongly affected by the ENSO (El Niño—Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. Therefore, it is pertinent to ask if the EPI’s long-term change due to climate change is more critical than the anomalies due to climate variability induced by the warm and cold phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña, respectively). In this work, we built EPI annual time series at each grid-point of the selected Satellite Precipitation Estimate (CHIRPSv2) over Colombia to answer the previous question. Then, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to compare the samples drawn in each case (i.e., change tests due to both long-term and climatic variability). After performing the analyses, we realized that the importance of the change depends on the region analyzed and the considered EPI. However, some general conclusions became evident: during El Niño years (La Niña), EPI’s anomaly follows the general trend of reduction -drier conditions- (increase; -wetter conditions-) observed in Colombian annual precipitation amount, but only on the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region. In the Eastern plains of Colombia (Orinoquía and Amazonian region), EPI show a certain insensitivity to change due to climatic variability. On the other hand, EPI’s long-term changes in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region are spatially scattered. Still, long-term changes in the eastern plains have a moderate spatial consistency with statistical significance.
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and land use change, has led to changes in the global climate. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to the impacts generated by climate change. For this reason, the challenge facing humanity today is to develop innovative solutions to address the complexity of agricultural sustainability.
On the other hand, sugarcane is one of the crops that emits the most pollutants into the atmosphere, mainly due to the burning of sugarcane before and after harvesting. Most of these atmospheric pollutants are precursors of climate change and have an impact on the health and quality of life of communities. Moreover, this agricultural practice causes the gradual deterioration of the soil, directly affecting sugarcane production. Consequently, several sugarcane-producing countries have established regulations or dispositions to eliminate this agricultural practice, and one option to eliminate it is the mechanization of harvesting. However, its implementation implies social, environmental, and economic impacts that must be analyzed systemically to avoid potential failures during the technological transition process. It is for this reason that this research, through the MICMAC method, focused on identifying the variables associated with the reduction of sugarcane burning in Campos dos Goytacazes and Tamasopo, to subsequently analyze their direct and indirect interrelationship, and, thus, determine the opportunities and limitations of each locality for the reduction of sugarcane burning.
Through this analysis, it became evident that although the technological transition is an imminent step for the sustainability of sugarcane cultivation, certain factors such as legislation, technological innovation, and the perception of the stakeholders regarding the consequences of sugarcane burning, is what defines in the study sites the speed and subsequent success of this process of change towards green harvesting.