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Configuration of energy transition factors in Inner Mongolia: A qualitative fuzzy logic approach
(2022)
Transitioning towards a low-carbon society is now increasingly becoming a global concern. The goal of successfully achieving this energy transition has become one of most pressing challenge, both among government decision makers and academia. Energy transition has raised up and become one of the top action priorities in China. Inner Mongolia, as the study area in this research, is significant in China's energy transition as one of leading provinces in terms of energy resources and electricity outward transmission.
The main goal of this dissertation is to identify configurations that influence on the energy transition in IMAR. On the basis of a multilevel perspective (MLP) framework, the method of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is applied within the thesis, taking 8 Chinese municipalities or leagues as study cases. A qualitative comparative study is carried out of configurations of diversified factors, which affect China’s energy transition. Eight antecedent conditions extracted from landscape level, regime level and niche level respectively.
It is shown that different transition trajectories can have a similar energy transition outcome. Energy transition itself is induced by multiple factors collaboratively. Coal resource curse does not always have negative effects on energy transition in Inner Mongolia. Within this work, two main energy transition modes (supply and demand balance reversed mode in western IMAR and energy technological transformation mode in eastern IMAR) are constructed based on regional differences and yearly dynamics, illustrating the trajectories with different municipal characteristics. The transition pattern also shows different geographical characteristics. Different east-west distribution of the electricity market distributes differently in eastern and western Inner Mongolia, however, the difference in distinct forms of electricity market does not show enough impact on the energy transition trajectory in this dissertation. Overall, this study shows that the local response and its effects on the process of energy transition, in the light of the encouragement and advocacy by the central government. Meanwhile, this study offers a deeper understanding in the feasibility of the application with a methodological combination of MLP and fsQCA in provincial level for future research.
Development of renewable energy projects within photovoltaic energy sector has reached unrestrainable pace in recent years and thus the investors are more vigilantly considering the further business deployment towards this sector. Underpinned with clear support from KfW Development Bank, the company MACS Energy & Water GmbH decided to facilitate future verification of credit lines towards these projects by deploying special eSaveTM software which would include technical and financial appraisals specially designed for their clients. Hereof this thesis comprises the initial phase development of this software within the MS Excel and endeavors to provide a proper guideline for the software engineers included in this task in the company. In order to simplify the explanation process this report sticks to 50 kW power plant project in Prokuplje. It is anticipated that this model would enhance, improve and expedite the feasibility analysis between the cooperatives by delivering the projections of energy yield, payback periods and sensitivity analysis of the loan conditions specified for the target country and PV projects in the same. However, besides this main task this report aims to fulfill all the other necessary prerequisites for accomplishing a good due diligence practice. Therefore the thesis places its focus to Republic of Serbia where exceptional due diligence reports were made, among which the Prokuplje project, and compiles the assessments in terms of legal, environmental and risk into one general framework for PV projects in this country. By doing so, the desktop-based model and results obtained with this user-friendly tool can lean on the full due diligence assessment and provide the reader a clear comprehensive overview of possibility to invest into this renewable energy sector in Republic of Serbia.
Keywords: PV, Due diligence, Serbia, eSaveTM, feasibility, model
Urbanization processes are one of the main factors for habitat loss and fragmentation, driving global biodiversity loss and species extinction. The neotropical Atlantic forest in Brazil is considered a global key biodiversity hotspot and used to be one of the most extensive forests of the Americas. Due to substantial deforestation over centuries, its landscape was transformed into a mosaic of small forest fragments surrounded by a predominantly agricultural matrix. Urban expansion and rural urbanization have created peri-urban zones, which still can harbor natural habitat remnants,
contributing to biological diversity and thus providing essential ecosystem services to urban and rural areas. The maintenance of such ecosystem services requires an understanding of the ecological processes in the ecosystem. A prerequisite for such an in-depth insight is the quantification of the underlying ecosystem functions. The ecosystem function pest control, a trophic interaction between insectivorous birds and herbivorous arthropods, was quantified in an empirical study using artificial caterpillars as prey models. This technique allows the identification of predator groups and the assessment of their predation rates. A total of 888 plasticine caterpillars were distributed at eight sites in secondary forest fragments surrounding the university campus of the federal university of São Carlos (UFScar) in peri-urban Sorocaba, southeastern Brazil. In sixteen point counts, 72 insect-eating birds, belonging to 19 species, were identified as possible artificial caterpillar attackers. Local habitat variables were measured to describe the forest vegetation structure and the landscape context. The study aimed to assess which structural components of the
forest fragments, together with the recorded bird community variables (abundance, richness, αdiversity), best explain the estimated predation rates by birds. The mean predation rate for birds was 8.25 ± 6.3 % for a reference period of eight days, representing the first quantification of the ecosystem function pest control for the study area. The three treatments of caterpillar placement heights (ground, stem: 0.5 -1.0 m, leaf: 1.5 - 2.0 m) were the best and only estimator to explain bird
predation rates. The little dense understory and ground vegetation might have facilitated the accessibility of artificial caterpillars, especially for carnivorous arthropods and birds. The detected contrast in their foraging and predation patterns suggests that arthropods and birds complement each other in their function of pest control. Bird predation rates were found to be negatively related to the vegetation structure. Thus, more open habitats, with less understory and low tree density, but high canopy cover and including dead trees were correlated with the highest predation rates and also exhibited more specialized forest-dependent bird species. This study confirms the importance of the maintenance of forest fragments in peri-urban areas, even if they are small, to preserve forest-associated birds, to contribute to the biological diversity on a broader scale, and to prevent the loss of ecosystem functions and services, mitigating some of the adverse effects of urbanization. Further investigation of the effect among the three treatments of caterpillar
placement on the predation rates is encouraged, including comparative studies among different habitat types. For future studies, it is recommended to model the avian community variables with the vegetation structure measures to predict habitat preferences of insectivorous birds. Therefore, the sampling of more units and on a bigger scale, including over a more extended period, is necessary to improve the robustness of the results, which could provide the basis for a monetary analysis of the ecosystem service pest control by birds.
The southeast of Córdoba province used to be originally covered by hundreds of wetlands that got heavily modified or drained in the last few decades. Since wetlands provide various important ecosystem services (ESS) for human well-being, their degradation created several problems in La Picasa basin, among which floods are the most obvious one. The wise use of wetlands is increasingly acknowledged to be part of nature-based solution approaches reducing disaster risk. However, in the study area these approaches remain a relatively new concept to decision makers and the lack of knowledge on their effectiveness and implementation process poses a serious barrier to their adoption.
To overcome this obstacle, this dissertation applies an ESS perspective on the current problems of La Picasa basin and sets it in a context of socio-ecological system (SES) theory. A comprehensive analysis of (1) the role wetlands have played in the historic development of the SES, (2) important stakeholder dynamics that create opportunities or restrictions for the conservation of wetlands and (3) possible management approaches to inverse negative ESS trade-offs and feedback loops, was performed.
Results demonstrate that the current problems of floods have both natural and anthropogenic causes. In this regard, wetlands hold a vital role in the complex historic interactions between the social and ecological drivers of changes in the water balance. Although a social network between stakeholders exists, several conflicts prevent a proper functioning of a basin-wide integrated management concept based on wetland restoration. Nature-based solution approaches, putting wetlands in the center of attention of future management strategies, were found to hold a high potential to reduce the risk of floods and, as a side-effect boost biodiversity and habitat quality in the study area.
Carbon Sequestration under different land uses and soils in the State of Quintana Roo, Mexico
(2017)
Rising in global temperature is evidently related to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations; this has become an environmental problem. The use of renewable energy, the development of eco-friendly merchandise and the enforcement of biomass management have been proposed to mitigate the issue. In the ecosphere, the pedosphere stores 1,500 to 2,500 PgC, which is four times more than the carbon stored in biomass; hence, it is very important to carry out soil carbon studies because of more long-term stability of such storage. In the study, soil carbon quantification was applied to the entire state of Quintana Roo, using a purpose oriented sampling, to observe the dynamic between land uses and soils, relating all relevant characteristics and properties of the landscape. To study the carbon content stored in soils, total carbon was estimated through loss-on-ignition, organic carbon by Walkley-Black method and inorganic carbon by calcium carbonate determination. The result portrays that the coastal dune vegetation-Arenosol (1,256 Mg C ha-1) is the combination with the highest soil carbon density, while Leptosol is the soil type with the highest storage capacity (852 MtC). Consequently, the soil carbon storage not only relates to soil properties but also associates with the surface area occupied by the specific soil type. In addition, the characteristics of the landscape play an important role in the storage of soil carbon. Due to that, soil carbon storage can be explained by biogeomorphoedaphic factors.
Food insecurity, poor nutrition and poverty are closely linked and entail adverse consequences for the health and well-being of children and adults. They constitute major constraints to development efforts as they can imply lifelong negative effects on human development with impairments on physical and mental capacities of a population, resulting in an overall lower productivity and economic growth potential.
Urban agriculture has been advocated as a strategy to improve food security. This paper exemplifies an urban gardening project that addresses food security and economic resilience of the Syrian refugees and vulnerable Lebanese host communities executed in the suburbs of Beirut. The hypothesis underpinning this study is that urban agriculture holds the potential to contribute to increased food security and reduced urban poverty, by increasing the availability and accessibility to a variety of fresh foods that are rich in vital nutrients and by functioning as a source of livelihoods and income.
The brutality of the Syrian Civil War, it’s massive damage and destruction of housing and persecutions for ethnic cleansing led more than a quarter of its originally 24 million inhabitants to seek safety in neighboring countries and Europe. The war has severely hampered the stability and development throughout the region as hundreds of thousands of refugees have fled to neighboring countries where they often compete with host communities over housing, labor, water, food and land. In relative numbers the biggest burden fell on the riparian country Lebanon, currently holding the highest ratio of refugees to nationals in the world. The small Arab country has already been suffering from many pre-existing challenges as food insecurity and widespread poverty.
The high dependence on food assistance, limited access to income and uncertainties on the amount of food aid provided in each upcoming year, all contribute to an unstable and low food security status of Syrian refugee households in Lebanon with spill overs to vulnerable host communities. In 2017, 91% of Syrian families residing in Lebanon remained food insecure to some degree and the share of household’s falling into severe food insecurity keeps increasing with every year.
These numbers provide clear evidence that current efforts of providing food assistance are not sufficient to combat the repercussions of the crisis and get the situation under control.
The paper displays the impact of the urban gardening project on the food security and economic resilience of participating household’s, as well as lessons learned on the project design during and after the implementation phase. The sampling frame is comprised of Syrian and Lebanese families participating in the project. Primary data were derived from a survey using a questionnaire with a sample size of 41 households. The findings aim to enable stakeholders to improve the performance of similar projects in the future and support relevant government authorities, international aid institutions, non-profits and the civic society towards creating sustainable long-term solutions to increase the self-reliance of refugees by providing insights of the suitability of UA for multiple objectives and by highlighting potential challenges and risks.
In the Mesoamerican forest Selva Maya, multiple driving forces create an imbalance in the sensitive human-nature relation and demand for innovative management strategies for its re-establishment. Within the Guatemalan Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR), core areas are under strict protective legislation and agricultural activity is permitted only within a bordering buffer zone (BZ), which covers great part of the Guatemalan department Petén. Here, the implementation of agroecological practices by multiple stakeholders aims at tackling the principle driving forces of environmental degradation and thus at reducing the pressure on Central America’s largest tropical forest area. Since 2011, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) has assisted local stakeholders by carrying out the project “Conservation and sustainable use of the Selva Maya”. This project has offered technical support, cooperated with national institutions, and assisted multiple target groups to nudge agroecological transitions at the household and community level. As the establishment of agroecological systems face main obstacles stemming from the socio-ecological setting of the respective area, the following work presents a context specific analysis for the adaption of established strategies in the MBR BZ. Therefore, it raises the following research questions: What are the current properties of the socio-ecological system that describes the BZ? How has the GIZ’s project nudged and guided agroecological transitions? Which factors have favored or limited the turn to agroecological farming? And finally: Which recommendations derive for the navigation of agroecological transitions? The overall research approach is orientated on the framework of ecosystem stewardship1 and incorporates elements of system theory and resilience science. The framework has been adapted by combining two approaches on different management levels. The social-ecological system approach2 is used to describe the socio-ecological system of the BZ, while the evaluation of the pilot groups‘ AESs follows the Mexican MESMIS3 approach for sustainability assessments. By the integration of both approaches, it is revealed that the socio-economic context impedes or hinders the implementation of agroecological strategies for the majority of farmers. The application of the MESMIS framework has revealed that the installed monitoring mechanism is dysfunctional. Findings further indicate that there is potential for transitions of individual AESs, but they demand investments and support with the current circumstances of reducing farmers’ vulnerability. The rapidly decreasing social and environmental conditions for family farmers in the BZ are most likely not addressed by solutions that the agroecological approach tackles. Recommendations for the immediate improvement of the strategy include adjustments of the project’s proceedings as well as fundamental changes in conservation paradigm and governance to maintain the necessary functionality of the socio-ecological system.
Human civilization has a great history of managing Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) services. But such services in rural areas have been neglected throughout our history. Numerous multimillion dollars WaSH interventions have been implemented in rural areas to eradicate open defecation, but most of them failed to create a demand for sanitation. Lack of equity and fair participation in approaches to change behavior and mindset, rather than habits, has made it hard for governments to achieve their WaSH related targets. Participatory rural sanitation approaches that focus on behavior change and ownership building among the community members have helped in the transition to open defecation free (ODF) societies. A justice-focused sanitation approach shows potential in fast-tracking this transition. Just transition is a concept that has not been endured in the sanitation discussion yet but shows the potential of sustainable WaSH solutions. This social empirical research has explored the feasibility of a justice-based sanitation approach guiding a transition towards societies with universal access to sanitation services. A just sanitation transition framework was adapted from the considered theoretical foundations and was used to map the capability and justice dimensions of two rural sanitation approaches being implemented in schools in the Mukuyu community in Trans-Nzoia county, Kenya. The adapted framework has been able to compute both sanitation approaches on a scoring tool, quantitatively assessing the productivity and justice dimensions of both approaches. This research has helped in establishing the viability of a just sanitation transition framework to produce an informed understanding of the potential of rural sanitation approaches to produce desired results while being just. Study findings help in filling research gaps and laying the foundation to the just transition debate in the sanitation sector and opens a window to further researches on the same, in the future.
Ecosystems provide a wide range of goods, services or ecosystem services (ES) to society. Estimating the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on ES values (ESV) is an important tool to support decision making. This study used remote sensing and GIS tools to analyze LULC change and transitions from 2001 to 2016 and assess its impact on ESV in a tropical forested landscape in the southern plains of Nepal. The total ESV of the landscape for the year 2016 is estimated at USD 1264 million year−1. As forests are the dominant land cover class and have high ES value per hectare, they have the highest contribution in total ESV. However, as a result of LULC change (loss of forests, water bodies, and agricultural land), the total ESV of the landscape has declined by USD 11 million year−1. Major reductions come from the loss in values of climate regulation, water supply, provision of raw materials and food production. To halt the ongoing loss of ES and maintain the supply and balance of different ES in the landscape, it is important to properly monitor, manage and utilize ecosystems. We believe this study will inform policymakers, environmental managers, and the general public on the ongoing changes and contribute to developing effective land use policy in the region.
Amboseli-Tsavo Ecosystem is a unique landscape in Kenya’s semi-arid rangelands to the border of Tanzania. It is characterized by high abundances of wildlife which frequently disperses between three National Parks, namely Amboseli, Tsavo West and Chyulu Hills. Due to an increased population and a land-use change from prior nomadic pastoralism to sedentary farming activities, the land became highly fragmented and transformed into a human-dominated area. Increasingly wildlife migration routes are becoming blocked, leading to isolation of the National Parks and multiplied human-wildlife conflicts. The African elephant (Loxodonta africana) is sadly famous as the most common conflict animal causing damage to properties, cropland and injuring or killing livestock and, in the worst case, people. However, elephants are at the same time a flagship species and represent the backbone for tourism activities around Amboseli. Therefore, the elephant is both a very valuable and problematic asset in the area. Unfortunately, wildlife conservation practices over the last decades, favoring animals over humans, have led to a negative perception of wildlife among the population in the ecosystem which challenges appropriate conservation mechanisms.
To maintain the tourism attraction of viewing elephants and to minimise the conflicts between local communities and animals, migration routes should remain open. The concept of landscape connectivity ensures biodiversity conservation, particularly for far-distance migration animals such as elephants. The elephant was therefore chosen as a keystone species in this study on which the analysis is based.
Using a least-cost path analysis (LCP) in ArcGIS, “cheapest” travel routes of Loxodonta africana between the three National Parks were identified. Factors included were selected and weighted by information gathered in expert interviews. Satellite imagery were classified using ESA SNAP toolbox to obtain vegetation covers and waterbodies for two different seasons (dry and wet), aiming to illustrate the temporal variability of potential connectivity paths. Additionally, key informant interviews and interviews of Group Ranch members around Amboseli National Park were conducted to gather information regarding the current state of management in the ecosystem and perceptions about wildlife management. A subsequent SWOT Analysis on three optimum routes obtained through LCP, takes the social-political factors and information obtained into account to discuss the different options for their conflict solving potential.
On the one hand, recommendations resulting from this study identify possible elephant migration routes that should be maintained by using a participatory conservation approach to secure landscape connectivity in long-term. On the other hand, management recommendations include a design for improved relationships between Group Ranch members and the responsible governmental institutions by equally distributing benefits, implementing financial benefits and establishing a functioning and adequate compensation scheme. By ensuring peoples’ active participation in conservation and wildlife management, a more positive attitude towards wildlife might be induced, which will positively influence the wildlife conflict in long run.