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Catastrophe insurance without premium payment – The concept of contigent liability in Switzerland
(2023)
No later than with the heavy rainfalls of 2021, discussions in Germany have resumed around the introduction of compulsory insurance for natural hazards. Natural hazards exhibit a high potential for loss, and insurance is a building block with which to bolster resilience. In practice, there are already a host of functioning solution concepts to provide cover for natural hazards, including insurance pools and state guarantees. All of the concepts, however, are predicated on payment of an ongoing insurance premium.
Learning more about the ways in which market participants in the reinsurance market interact based on the logic of a game requires a realisation that the main research that exists is in the mathematical/actuarial direction in which mathematicians deal with ‘optimal reinsurance contracts’. In this connection, negotiations between cedants and reinsurers are viewed in different ways, but always as a strategic game.
The 16th Annual Meeting of the Sponsoring Group Reinsurance [Förderkreis Rückversicherung] was held 16 June 2023 in Niederkassel, near Cologne. Some 90 representatives of the (re)insurance companies involved in the Sponsoring Group
took part in the meeting, along with guests. Offered for the ninth time as part of the Annual Meeting, the Researchers’ Corner gave the six academic researchers at the Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance an opportunity to deliver a presentation on the research project in which each is involved in 2023. Over the course of three sessions, the most important results of the scientific studies by the Cologne Research Centre for Reinsurance were presented and discussed.
The heterogeneity of the topics presented reflects the dovetailing of Cologne Research Centre with reinsurance practice.
In its Renewables 2022 Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the share of renewable energies in the global energy mix will increase from 22.8% in 2015 to 38.1% in 2027. This trend goes hand-in-hand with increasing construction of plants for the generation of renewable energies, leading to increased demand for (re)insurance. Comparable to the development of traditional energy sources, the hedging of current risks is a key element in the further development of renewable energies. According to projections by the IEA, by 2027 most of the energy from renewable sources will be generated using photovoltaics or solar as well as onshore and offshore wind.
Due to their unpredictable nature and sweeping impacts make cyber risks, including cyber warfare and state-sponsored cyber-attacks, present a considerable challenge to many areas of our daily lives. In today’s connected world, the threat of cyber risk is omnipresent. Cyber warfare and state-sponsored cyber-attacks are of particular concern, as they are initiated or supported by governments or state actors. Often, the purpose of such attacks is to compromise critical infrastructure, government systems, businesses, or citizens’ privacy. The impacts can be devastating. They range from financial losses for businesses to theft of intellectual property, disruptions of public order and threats to national security.
The prolonged US-China trade tension, initiated in 2017, has led to significant consequences, impacting global supply chains and causing economic tension between the two largest economies. Particularly affecting the automotive sector, the trade war has influenced motor insurance premiums in China, contributing to a declining trend in non-life insurance growth rates from 2017 to 2021. However, a positive outlook is projected for 2023-2026, indicating potential recovery opportunities. The trade war's short-term impacts on the Chinese motor insurance market include increased costs, low premium growth, and economic challenges. In the long term, transformative changes, including market diversification, innovative products, data-driven pricing, and technology-enabled risk prevention, are expected to shape a dynamic and competitive motor insurance landscape in China, offering growth potential despite initial challenges.
The teaching of civil engineering consists of different didactic approaches, such as lectures, group work or research-based teaching, depending on the respective courses. Currently, the metaverse is gaining importance in teaching and offers the possibility of a new teaching approach for civil engineering and especially for the teaching of courses from the areas of “Digital Design and Construction”. Although the advantages of teaching in the metaverse, such as location and time independence or a higher learning outcome, are mentioned in the literature, there are also challenges that must be considered when teaching in the metaverse. Against this background, this paper examines the implications of using the metaverse as a teaching tool in teaching “Digital Design and Construction”. The impact of teaching BIM in the metaverse is evaluated by (1) a literature review and workshops to evaluate use cases and demands for extended reality (XR) and the metaverse, (2) integrating XR and the metaverse in the courses and valuation by quantitative evaluations and (3) analyzing student papers of the courses and outcomes of a World Café. Due to these steps, this paper presents a novel approach by reflecting the students’ perspective. Furthermore, this paper presents a validated approach for integrating BIM and the metaverse in teaching.
This study explores the potential of robust, strongly basic type I ion exchange resins—specifically, Amberlyst® A26 OH and Lewatit® K 6465—as catalysts for the aldol condensation of citral and acetone, yielding pseudoionone. Emphasis is placed on their long-term stability and commendable performance in continuous operational settings. The aldol reaction, which traditionally is carried out using aqueous sodium hydroxide as the catalyst, holds the potential for enhanced sustainability and reduced waste production through the use of basic ion exchange resins in heterogeneous catalysis. Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations are employed to investigate catalyst deactivation mechanisms. The result of these calculations indicates that the active sites of Amberlyst® A26 OH are cleaved more easily than the active sites of Lewatit® K 6465. However, the experimental data show a gradual decline in catalytic activity for both resins. Batch experiments reveal Amberlyst® A26 OH’s active sites diminishing, while Lewatit® K 6465 maintains relative consistency. This points to distinct deactivation processes for each catalyst. The constant count of basic sites in Lewatit® K 6465 during the reaction suggests additional factors due to its unique polymer structure. This intriguing observation also highlights an exceptional temperature stability for Lewatit® K 6465 compared to Amberlyst® A26 OH, effectively surmounting one of the prominent challenges associated with the utilization of ion exchange resins in catalytic applications.
A novel approach to manufacture components with integrated conductor paths involves embedding and sintering an isotropic conductive adhesive (ICA) during fused filament fabrication (FFF). However, the molten plastic is deposited directly onto the adhesive path which causes an inhomogeneous displacement of the uncured ICA. This paper presents a 3D printing strategy to achieve a homogeneous cross-section of the conductor path. The approach involves embedding the ICA into a printed groove and sealing it with a wide extruded plastic strand. Three parameter studies are conducted to obtain a consistent cavity for uniform formation of the ICA path. Specimens made of polylactic acid (PLA) with embedded ICA paths are printed and evaluated. The optimal parameters include a groove printed with a layer height of 0.1 mm, depth of 0.4 mm, and sealed with a PLA strand of 700 µm diameter. This resulted in a conductor path with a homogeneous cross-section, measuring 660 µm ± 22 µm in width (relative standard deviation: 3.3%) and a cross-sectional area of 0.108 mm2 ± 0.008 mm2 (relative standard deviation 7.2%). This is the first study to demonstrate the successful implementation of a printing strategy for embedding conductive traces with a homogeneous cross-sectional area in FFF 3D printing.
The internal armed conflict in Colombia has been closely linked to the illegal exploitation of natural resources and the appropriation of territories, including the planting of illicit coca crops. This activity has led to deforestation and the degradation of natural ecosystems, aggravating the problems associated with violence and drug trafficking. Regions with little state presence, such as Catatumbo, were particularly affected.
Following the signing of the peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016, a post-agreement scenario emerged that highlighted the need to address complex socio-environmental conflicts in affected regions. This research aims to identify the potential of environmental governance to contribute to peacebuilding and the reduction of deforestation associated with illicit coca cultivation.
A qualitative methodological approach was used in this study, which seeks to integrate research methods and techniques such as: documentary review, participant observation, semi-structured and in-depth interviews, and mapping of the current reality through the Theory U 3D mapping tool.
The results include the socio-environmental context of the territory of analysis, describing the origins of the conflict of deforestation for illicit crops, where the growing dynamics of transformation of the sowing of illicit crops are related, as well as the dynamics of deforestation in the territory of analysis. Tthe identification and analysis of the most relevant actors that have historically participated in the processes of deforestation for illicit crops, their characterization according to the relations of power, interest and legitimisation legitimization. The forms of participation and conflict resolution in the management of natural resources.
Considering as a contextual axis two important processes at a socio-political level in Colombia and the territory under analysis, which correspond to the consolidation of the Comprehensive Rural Reform after the peace agreement and the post-agreement context. Several intervention proposals were proposed from the perspective of environmental governance related to the reconstruction of the social fabric, the reconversion of productive systems, and the resignification of new dynamics of natural resource management. In this sense, the potential of environmental governance is discussed as a useful framework for establishing new relationships based on horizontality in which the actors possess sovereignty over the territory, participation and representativeness in the management of natural resources.
Key words: Deforestation, illicit coca crops, environmental governance, forest management, peacebuilding.
Mangrove forests have been studied broadly in the recent three decades for their outstanding ability to sequester carbon in the beneath soil and other beneficial ecosystem services. Endeavors to conserve and regenerate mangrove cover are still increasing worldwide as a mechanism to include them in NDCs and carbon markets. Therefore, decision-makers in the private and public sectors require identify possible areas for conservation and restoration prior to blue carbon project investment. Thus, an integral assessment of potential mangrove carbon reservoirs in a landscape scale, considering environmental and socioeconomic factors was performed. This study was aimed to determine areas with the highest blue carbon sequestration potential in the Gulf of Guayaquil through the construction of a Blue Carbon Potential Index (BCPI) based on Spatial Multicriteria Analysis (SMCA). A narrative integrative literature review was employed to select indicators of mangrove carbon sequestration gains and losses. These indicators were pondered following the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the judgments of two experts and reclassified in four potential categories based on their thresholds. Since no consensus was achieved in the indicator importance hierarchization, a comparative of equal weighting method and AHP weighting was implemented. The linear combination rule was used to integrate these factors into a unique-scaled index supported by a geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that 15.82% and 16.21% of the study area belonged to high and moderate potential of blue carbon sequestration respectively. Moreover, no significant differences were found between the two weighting methods applied. The BCPI provides a comprehensive understanding of spatial distribution of blue carbon potential reservoirs and grants a quantification of this potential to prioritize conservation and restoration areas.
Das Labor für Konstruktionstechnik der Technischen Hochschule Köln beschäftigt sich mit der Mikrodosierung von präzisen Strukturen von Silberleitklebstoff. Hauptsächlich wird bei derartigen Ventilen in berührende und berührungslose Dosierventile unterschieden. Zur Erzeugung dreidimensionaler elektrisch leitfähiger Strukturen können diese Dosierventile an entsprechende Verfahreinheiten adaptiert werden.
Multifocal intraocular lenses incorporate a variety of design considerations, including dimensioning of the base monofocal shape and the diffraction grating. While studying three different lens models, we present a practical approach for mathematical modelling and evaluation of these geometries. Contrary to typical lens measurement methods, non-contact measurements were performed on the Alcon SN6AD1, HumanOptics MS 612 DAY and the AMO ZMA00 lenses using a confocal microscope. Subsequent data processing includes centering, tilting correction, filtering and an algorithmic decomposition into a conic and polynomial part and the diffraction grating. Lastly, evaluation of fitting parameters and grating shape is done to allow for inferences about further optical properties. Results and analysis show the confocal microscope to be a suitable imaging method for lens measurements. The processing of this data enables the reconstruction of the annular diffraction grating over the complete lens diameter. Apodization, near addition and diffraction efficiency characteristics are found utilizing the grating shape. Additionally, near-optical axis curvature, asphericity and higher order polynomials are identified qualitatively from the reconstruction of the monofocal base form. Derived properties also include the lens optical base and addition power. By making use of the surface geometries, as well as the lens’ material and thickness, a full lens model can be created for further studies. In summary, our analytical approach enables the insight to various intraocular lens design decisions. Furthermore, this procedure is suitable for lens model creation for research and simulation.
Feasibility Study of Wheel Torque Prediction with a Recurrent Neural Network Using Vehicle Data
(2023)
In this paper, we present a feasibility study on predicting the torque signal of a passenger car with the help of a neural network. In addition, we analyze the possibility of using the proposed model structure for temperature prediction. This was carried out with a neural network, specifically a three-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The data used were real road load data from a Jaguar Land Rover Evoque with a Twinster gearbox from GKN. The torque prediction generated good results with an accuracy of 55% and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 49 Nm, considering that the data were not generated under laboratory conditions. However, the performance of predicting the temperature signal was not satisfying with a coefficient of determination (R2) score of −1.396 and an RMSE score of 69.4 °C. The prediction of the torque signal with the three-layer LSTM network was successful but the transferability of the network to another signal (temperature) was not proven. The knowledge gained from this investigation can be of importance for the development of virtual sensor technology.
Aim: European cities are facing heighten hydrological risks as a result of climate change at the same time as ecological degradation has reduced the environmental capacity to absorb and regulate such fluctuations. Climate forecasts predict more intense convective rainfall and winter flood events in the Wupper Basin in Germany, against a background trend of reduced mean rainfall during the summer months. On 14 July 2021 intense convective rainfall fell at points across Western Germany and led to flash floods in the Wupper Basin, many sites were inundated and the Wupper and Dhünn rivers rose to new record highs. Green-blue infrastructure offers strategies to reduce the impacts of hazards at the same time as providing a range of co-benefits. A study was undertaken to find which green-blue interventions will be most effective at reducing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards for a study area in the west of the Wupper basin. Furthermore, as landscape features are highly influential in hydrology, the study sought to establish which sites within the landscape can provide maximum results from green-blue interventions, with a minimum of change to current land uses.
Region: Europe, peri-urban and rural, undulating, low mountainous landscapes
Methods: Literature findings on observed and projected climate data are summarised and long-term rainfall data from the study area is analysed to confirm rainfall trends. A state-of-the-art review is conducted and summarised to form a toolbox of potential interventions. The most recent hazardous hydrometeorological event is analysed to inform the locational priorities of potential interventions. Landscape features that have the most influence on basin hydrology are identified from the literature. These sites are paired with green-blue interventions that are shown to have the highest potential impact on interception, infiltration, runoff and flooding. A series of spatial analyses are carried out to produce maps detailing location and intervention with high potential to reduce the impact of hydrometeorological hazards in the study area. All of the evidence gathered from the literature analysis is combined in an implementation guide for green-blue interventions in the Wupper Basin.
Results: The hazards caused by the hydrometeorological extremes of flooding and drought are addressed or minimised through the green-blue interventions that increase interception and infiltration and reduce runoff and flooding. Priority locations are identified as the riparian zone with slope ≤15%, hilltop, lower slope and toe slope, all locations with a slope ≥30% and areas with a high topographic wetness index (TWI). A series of spatial analyses were carried out and suggestions made including potential locations for retention or detention areas and ponds, sites for revegetation and potential locations for implementation of shelterbelts/hedgerows, buffer strips, conservation tillage or strip tillage, reduced mowing intensity or frequency and biochar additions. An implementation guide is created that provides a summary of the highest potential green-blue interventions and landscape locations, and a description of the mechanisms involved in addressing the hydrometeorological hazards.
Keywords: Green-blue interventions, hydrometeorological hazard reduction, Wupper Basin hydrology
The demand for explainable and transparent models increases with the continued success of reinforcement learning. In this article, we explore the potential of generating shallow decision trees (DTs) as simple and transparent surrogate models for opaque deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents. We investigate three algorithms for generating training data for axis-parallel and oblique DTs with the help of DRL agents (“oracles”) and evaluate these methods on classic control problems from OpenAI Gym. The results show that one of our newly developed algorithms, the iterative training, outperforms traditional sampling algorithms, resulting in well-performing DTs that often even surpass the oracle from which they were trained. Even higher dimensional problems can be solved with surprisingly shallow DTs. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different sampling methods and insights into the decision-making process made possible by the transparent nature of DTs. Our work contributes to the development of not only powerful but also explainable RL agents and highlights the potential of DTs as a simple and effective alternative to complex DRL models.
Ten years after the journal’s first publication, we are taking a closer look at the knowledge flows of the output of the journal Publications. We analyzed the papers, topics, their authors and countries to assess the development of scholarly communication within Publications. Our bibliometric analyses show the research journal’s community, where the knowledge of this community is coming from, where it is going, and how diverse the community is based on its internationality and multidisciplinarity. We compare these findings with the scopes and topical goals the journal specifies. We aim at informing the editors and editorial board about the journal’s development to advance the journal’s role in scholarly communication. The results show that regarding topical diversity and internationality, the journal has remarkably developed. Moreover, the journal tends towards the field of library and information science, but strengthens its multidisciplinary status via its topics and author backgrounds.
To date, the establishment of high-titer stable viral packaging cells (VPCs) at large scale for gene therapeutic applications is very time- and cost-intensive. Here we report the establishment of three human suspension 293-F-derived ecotropic MLV-based VPCs. The classic stable transfection of an EGFP-expressing transfer vector resulted in a polyclonal VPC pool that facilitated cultivation in shake flasks of 100 mL volumes and yielded high functional titers of more than 1 × 106 transducing units/mL (TU/mL). When the transfer vector was flanked by transposon terminal inverted repeats (TIRs) and upon co-transfection of a plasmid encoding for the transposase, productivities could be slightly elevated to more than 3 × 106 TU/mL. In contrast and using mRNA encoding for the transposase, as a proof of concept, productivities were drastically improved by more than ten-fold exceeding 5 × 107 TU/mL. In addition, these VPC pools were generated within only 3 weeks. The production volume was successfully scaled up to 500 mL employing a stirred-tank bioreactor (STR). We anticipate that the stable transposition of transfer vectors employing transposase transcripts will be of utility for the future establishment of high-yield VPCs producing pseudotype vector particles with a broader host tropism on a large scale.
Ground tire rubber (GTR) is a product obtained by grinding worn tire treads before retreading them or via the cryogenic or ambient temperature milling of end-of-life tires (ELTs). The aim of this study is to evaluate if calcium carbonate can be substituted by GTR and, if so, to what extent. Different types of ground tire rubber are incorporated in an EPDM (ethylene–propylene–diene–rubber) model compound as partial or complete substitutes of calcium carbonate. The raw compounds and the vulcanizates are characterized to identify the limits. In general, it is apparent that increasing amounts of GTR and larger particles degrade the mechanical properties. The GTR also influences the vulcanization kinetics by reducing the scorch time up to 50% and vulcanization time up to nearly 80%. This is significant for production processes. The compounds with one-third substitution with the smaller-particle-size GTR show mostly similar or even better properties than the reference.